The effect of aerosols and sea surface temperature on China's climate in the late twentieth century from ensembles of global climate simulations
The effect of aerosols and sea surface temperature on China's climate in the late twentieth century from ensembles of global climate simulations
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DOI：
10.1002/2014jd022851
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发表时间：
2015-03-27
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Wild, M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Folini, D.;Wild, M.
在20世纪后期，中国的气溶胶排放显著增加，其对观测到的地表太阳辐射（SSR）、地表气温（SAT）和降水变化的定量作用仍存在争议。我们使用德国汉堡马克斯普朗克气象研究所的全球气候模式ECHAM5的瞬态灵敏度实验集合，结合汉堡气溶胶模块来检验气溶胶和规定的、基于观测的海面温度（SSTs）对上述变量的影响。1960-2000年，中国东部地区SSR变暗（- 62w /m(2)/ 10年）与对照试验基本一致；比耦合模式比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）模式强，统计上不显著的夏季SAT趋势（1950-2005），以及1950- 1990年夏季干燥（每10年-2.5%至-3.5%，主要是通过对流降水减少）。其他观测到的特征，如20世纪90年代长江流域降水增加，或20世纪60年代以来中国北方和蒙古的强烈冬季增温以及中国西部的SSR变暗，都没有被模式再现。气溶胶对二氧化硫的影响比对黑碳和有机碳的影响更强，在较低的模式分辨率下更明显。瞬态海温对陆地上的年代际SAT变率至关重要，特别是20世纪90年代的强烈变暖，以及通过海温强迫云覆盖减少，在2000年左右停止了SSR变暗。非强迫云变率导致单个观测点模拟SSR趋势的相关散射（高达2 W/m / 10年）。
Over the late twentieth century, China has seen a strong increase in aerosol emissions, whose quantitative role for observed changes in surface solar radiation (SSR), surface air temperature (SAT), and precipitation remains debated. We use ensembles of transient sensitivity experiments with the global climate model ECHAM5 from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany, combined with the Hamburg Aerosol Module to examine the effect of aerosols and prescribed, observation-based sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the above variables. Observations and control experiments agree reasonably well in eastern China in terms of SSR dimming (-6 2 W/m(2)/decade, 1960-2000; stronger than in models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5), statistically nonsignificant summer SAT trend (1950-2005), and drying in summer from 1950 to 1990 (-2.5% to -3.5% per decade, essentially via reduction of convective precipitation). Other observed features are not reproduced by the model, e.g., precipitation increase in the 1990s in the Yangtze River valley or, from the 1960s onward, the strong winter warming in northern China and Mongolia and SSR dimming in western China. Aerosol effects are stronger for sulfur dioxide than for black and organic carbon and are more pronounced at lower model resolution. Transient SSTs are crucial for decadal-scale SAT variability over land, especially the strong warming in the 1990s, and, via SST forced reduction of cloud cover, for the ceasing of SSR dimming around the year 2000. Unforced cloud variability leads to relevant scatter (up to 2 W/m(2)/decade) of modeled SSR trends at individual observation sites.