Inhomogeneity of precipitation and its influencing factors in Northwest China from 1961 to 2015
Inhomogeneity of precipitation and its influencing factors in Northwest China from 1961 to 2015
复制标题
1961—2015年西北地区降水不均匀性及其影响因素
DOI：
10.1007/s00704-019-02907-8
复制
发表时间：
2019-07
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Peng Xiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu Weicheng;Fu Zhao;Chen Xiaoyan;Qu Jing;Wang Jixin;Peng Xiao
降水时空分布不均容易引发洪涝灾害，深入分析降水时空分布不均可以为抗旱抗洪、指导农业生产提供科学方法。利用西北中国地区119个测站1961~2015年的月降水和温度资料，利用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen‘s斜率估计器，分析了西北地区降水集中指数和月降水量占年平均降水量的年际变化，并利用随机林方法分析了影响降水不均匀分布的因素的重要程度。结果表明，西北地区中国地区总体上呈东、西部递减和递增的趋势，南疆南部和青海高原西部地区的年变化幅度较大，其他地区相对较小。就PCI值的多年平均变率而言，除青海高原中部外，中国西北大部分地区的年降水量分布趋于均匀，青海高原中部地区的年降水量分布不均匀加剧。从年降水量分布来看，新疆月降水量呈增加趋势，其他地区暖季减少，冷季增加。降水降水的不均匀性对气候变暖有显著的负反馈响应，即较高的年平均气温对应着中国西北大部地区年降水分布的均质性。西风环流和季风是影响西北地区降水不均匀的主要因素。
Inhomogeneous spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation tends to causecauses floods and waterlogging,; an in-depth analysis of the inhomogeneous spatiotemporalthis distribution of precipitation can provide scientific methods for coping with droughts and floods and guiding agricultural production. On the basis ofBased on the monthly precipitation and temperature field data collected by 119 stations in Northwest China from 1961 to 2015, the interannual variability of the precipitation concentration index (PCI) and monthly precipitation accounting for the average proportion of annual precipitation (MPPAP) was detected using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator; further, the degree of importance of the factors that affectaffecting the inhomogeneous distribution of precipitation were analyzed using Random Forestsrandom forests (RF). The resultsResults show that thePCI’s spatial distribution of PCI in Northwest China generally decreases and increases in the east and west, respectively; further, the results show that thePCI’s interannual variability of PCI significantly fluctuates substantially in southern Xinjiang and the west of the Qinghai Plateau but, and relatively slightly in other areas. As for theRegarding PCI’s multi-year average variability of PCI, the annual precipitation distribution tends to be homogeneous in most areas of northwestNorthwest China except in, excluding the middle of the Qinghai Plateau, where the inhomogeneity of annual precipitation distribution intensifies. In terms of the annual precipitation distribution, the monthly precipitation shows an increasing trend in Xinjiang; however, in other regions, it reduces in warm seasons and increases in cold seasons. By contrastContrastingly, MPPAP decreases in warm seasons and increases in cold seasons.ThePrecipitation inhomogeneity of precipitation has a significant negative feedbackresponse to climate warming, i.e., a high annual temperature corresponds to the homogeneity of the annual precipitation distribution in most parts of northwestNorthwest China. The westerly circulation and monsoon are the main factors that affectaffecting the inhomogeneity of precipitation in the northwestern region.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Alfieri, L.;Thielen, J.
通讯作者：
Thielen, J.
西南地区降水浓度指数空间分布及时间变化趋势
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Peng Shi;Miao Wu;Simin Qu;Peng Jiang
通讯作者：
Peng Jiang
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
F. Ji;Jh H. Zhao;Q. Shen;R. Zhi;Z. Gong
通讯作者：
F. Ji;Jh H. Zhao;Q. Shen;R. Zhi;Z. Gong
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
Progress in geography
影响因子：
--
作者：
Liu Xianfeng
通讯作者：
Liu Xianfeng
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Donges, Jonathan F.;Petrova, Irina;Kurths, Juergen
通讯作者：
Kurths, Juergen