Life Course Air Pollution Exposure and Cognitive Decline: Modelled Historical Air Pollution Data and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936
Life Course Air Pollution Exposure and Cognitive Decline: Modelled Historical Air Pollution Data and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936
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DOI：
10.1101/2020.10.16.20163691
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发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Tom C. Russ;M. Cherrie;C. Dibben;S. Tomlinson;S. Reis;U. Dragosits;M. Vieno;R. Beck;E. Carnell;N. Shortt;G. Muniz-Terrera;P. Redmond;A. Taylor;T. Clemens;M. V. van Tongeren;R. Agius;J. Starr;I. Deary;J. Pearce
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文献类型：
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作者：
Tom C. Russ;M. Cherrie;C. Dibben;S. Tomlinson;S. Reis;U. Dragosits;M. Vieno;R. Beck;E. Carnell;N. Shortt;G. Muniz-Terrera;P. Redmond;A. Taylor;T. Clemens;M. V. van Tongeren;R. Agius;J. Starr;I. Deary;J. Pearce
背景：空气污染一直与痴呆症和认知能力下降有关。然而，目前尚不清楚风险是通过长期接触积累的，还是存在敏感/关键时期。澄清这种关系的一个关键障碍是缺乏历史空气污染数据。目的：论证建立历史空气污染数据模型并应用于流行病学模型的可行性。方法：利用EMEP4UK大气化学输送模型，模拟了1935年、1950年、1970年、1980年和1990年的历史细颗粒物（PM2.5）浓度，并将这些数据与2001年的当代模型数据相结合，对1936年洛锡安出生队列中572名参与者的生命历程暴露进行了估计，并记录了他们一生的居住历史。采用Moray House测试在11岁、70岁、76岁和79岁时测量的认知能力（IQ），构建线性回归和潜在增长模型，探讨历史空气污染暴露的影响。协变量包括性别、11岁时的智商、社会阶层和吸烟。结果：1935年的高空气污染模型（当时参与者还在子宫内）与11-70岁的智商变化较差相关（Beta=-0.006， SE=0.002， P=0.03），但与70-79岁的认知轨迹无关（P < 0.05）。没有证据支持其他关键/敏感暴露期或风险累积（均P < 0.05）。结论：生命过程范式对于理解认知能力下降至关重要，这是第一个研究生命过程中空气污染暴露与认知健康之间关系的研究。
Background: Air pollution has been consistently linked with dementia and cognitive decline. However, it is unclear whether risk is accumulated through long-term exposure or whether there are sensitive/critical periods. A key barrier to clarifying this relationship is the dearth of historical air pollution data. Objective: To demonstrate the feasibility of modelling historical air pollution data and using them in epidemiological models. Methods: Using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model, we modelled historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for the years 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and combined these with contemporary modelled data from 2001 to estimate life course exposure in 572 participants in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 with lifetime residential history recorded. Linear regression and latent growth models were constructed using cognitive ability (IQ) measured by the Moray House Test at the ages of 11, 70, 76, and 79 years to explore the effects of historical air pollution exposure. Covariates included sex, IQ at age 11 years, social class, and smoking. Results: Higher air pollution modelled for 1935 (when participants would have been in utero) was associated with worse change in IQ from age 11-70 years (Beta=-0.006, SE=0.002, P=0.03) but not cognitive trajectories from age 70-79 years (P>0.05). There was no support for other critical/sensitive periods of exposure or an accumulation of risk (all P>0.05). Conclusions: The life course paradigm is essential in understanding cognitive decline and this is the first study to examine life course air pollution exposure in relation to cognitive health.