The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study
The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study
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DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1008186
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发表时间：
2007-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Wensheng Peng;Dickson C. Tam;M. Yiu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Wensheng Peng;Dickson C. Tam;M. Yiu
本文利用覆盖31个省份和主要城市的面板数据模型，研究1998-2004年中国大陆房地产市场与宏观经济的关系。这些估计提出了三个主要结论。首先，房地产价格和GDP增长之间似乎存在双向联系。特别是，房地产价格上涨对投资产生了显着的正向影响，但没有证据表明财富效应对消费产生影响。其次，银行信贷扩张似乎并未对房地产价格通胀发挥“加速”作用，尽管近年来人们发现后者促进了银行信贷增长。第三，沿海地区的房价增长可能偏离基本面，房价与租金之间的负相关关系就证明了这一点。
This paper studies the nexus between the property market and the macroeconomy of Mainland China in 1998-2004, using panel data models covering 31 provinces and major cities. The estimates suggest three main conclusions. First, there seemed to be a two-way linkage between property price and GDP growth. In particular, property price increase had a significant positive impact on investment, but no evidence of a wealth effect on consumption is obtained. Second, bank credit expansion did not seem to play an 'accelerating' role in property price inflation, although the latter is found to have contributed to bank credit increase in recent years. Third, property price growth may have deviated from fundamentals in coastal areas, as evidenced by a negative relationship between housing and rental prices.