Cancer prevalence in Germany in 2017 Number of cancer survivors based on data from population-based cancer registries
Cancer prevalence in Germany in 2017 Number of cancer survivors based on data from population-based cancer registries
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DOI：
10.1007/s00761-021-00988-7
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发表时间：
2021-07-07
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kraywinkel, Klaus
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文献类型：
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作者：
Arndt, Volker;Dahm, Stefan;Kraywinkel, Klaus
背景由于癌症预后的改善，但也由于人口老龄化，德国的癌症幸存者人数正在增加。然而，关于德国癌症总体患病率的详细数据仍然缺乏。目的根据肿瘤实体、性别、年龄和诊断后的时间，对癌症幸存者的总数进行最新估计。材料和方法第一步，使用罗伯特科赫研究所癌症登记数据中心（ZfKD）提供的最新癌症发病率和生存数据，通过Pisani等人的方法计算2017年德国25年的癌症患病率。德国的（完全）流行率是根据年龄，总患病率和25年患病率的性别和癌症特异性比率来自监测流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据。截至2017年底，德国有465万癌症幸存者（男性210万，女性255万）。大约三分之二的癌症幸存者可以被认为是“长期幸存者”，即，癌症诊断是在5年或更久以前。更多的人比以往任何时候都生活在癌症诊断后。在发达国家，他们现在占人口的5%左右。由于人口老龄化，特别是“婴儿潮一代”进入50岁以上的一代，德国癌症患者或癌症后的人数将在未来几年继续上升。
Background Due to improvement in cancer prognosis, but also due to demographic aging, the number of cancer survivors in Germany is increasing. However, detailed data on the overall prevalence of cancer in Germany are still lacking. Objectives To present up-to-date estimates on the total number of cancer survivors according to tumor entity, sex, age and time since diagnosis. Materials and methods In a first step, the 25-year cancer prevalence in Germany in 2017 was calculated using the most recent cancer incidence and survival data available by the Center for Cancer Registry Data (ZfKD) at the Robert Koch Institute by the method of Pisani et al. Lifetime (complete) prevalence in Germany was estimated by extrapolation of the 25-year prevalence according to the age-, sex- and cancer-specific ratio from total prevalence and 25-year prevalence derived from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data. Results There have been 4.65 million cancer survivors in Germany by end of 2017 (2.10 million men and 2.55 million women). About two-thirds of all cancer survivors may be considered "long-term survivors", i.e., the cancer diagnosis was 5 or more years ago. Conclusions More people than ever are living after a cancer diagnosis. In developed countries, they now make up about 5% of the population. Due to demographic aging and in particular the entry of the "baby boomers" into the 50+ generation, the number of people with or after cancer in Germany will continue to rise in the coming years.