Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition - The role of capital costs, divergent risk perceptions and premiums
Costs or benefits? Assessing the economy-wide effects of the electricity sector's low carbon transition - The role of capital costs, divergent risk perceptions and premiums
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DOI：
10.1016/j.esr.2019.100373
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发表时间：
2019-11-01
影响因子：
8.2
通讯作者：
Steininger, Karl W.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bachner, Gabriel;Mayer, Jakob;Steininger, Karl W.
为了减缓气候变化，社会努力将能源部门转变为温室气体排放中和，评估研究经常表明此举会产生巨大的宏观经济成本。在这种情况下，加权平均资本成本（WACC）尤为重要，因为可再生能源是高度资本密集型的。特别是，投资者对风险的看法和预期是加权平均资本成本的基本决定因素，从而强烈影响转型分析的宏观经济结果。对于欧洲电力行业转型的案例，我们通过选择不同的加权平均资本成本设置来分析这种敏感性，这也是由不同的政策设置重新引导预期所驱动的。首先，我们发现，当比文献中通常更准确地区分不同地区和技术的 WACC 时，就会从转型中产生直接和实质性的宏观经济效益。因此，我们揭示了文献中对低碳转型成本的系统性高估。其次，我们发现，当定价增加对可再生能源的信任时，这些好处会变得更大，超过化石资产搁浅风险可能带来的负面宏观经济影响。我们还证明，在欧洲等发达地区，降低可再生能源风险是实现气候目标的有效杠杆，这表明绿色宏观审慎监管的相关性。
To mitigate climate change, societies strive to transform the energy sector towards greenhouse gas emission neutrality, a move which assessment studies often indicate incurs large macroeconomic costs. In this context the weighted average costs of capital (WACC) are especially important, as renewables are highly capital intensive. In particular, investors' perceptions and expectations of risks are fundamental determinants of WACC and thus strongly influence the macroeconomic outcome of transition analyses. For the case of Europe's electricity sector transition, we analyze this sensitivity by choosing different WACC settings, driven also by different policy settings redirecting expectations. First, we find that when differentiating WACC across regions and technologies more accurately than usually done in the literature, immediate and substantial macroeconomic benefits from the transition emerge. We thereby reveal a systematic overestimation of low-carbon transition costs in the literature. Second, we find that when pricing-in increasing trust in renewables, these benefits get significantly larger, outweighing possible negative macroeconomic effects from the risk of stranding of fossil-based assets. We also demonstrate that in developed regions such as Europe, de-risking renewables is an effective lever for reaching climate targets, which indicates the relevance of green macroprudential regulation.