Trend Analyses of Baseflow and BFI for Undisturbed Watersheds in Michigan—Constraints from Multi-Objective Optimization
Trend Analyses of Baseflow and BFI for Undisturbed Watersheds in Michigan—Constraints from Multi-Objective Optimization
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DOI：
10.3390/w13040564
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发表时间：
2021-02
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
B. Hagedorn;C. Meadows
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Hagedorn;C. Meadows
记录地下水和地表水系统如何应对气候变化对于了解水资源至关重要，特别是在美国五大湖地区，那里观测到了温度和降水的剧烈变化。本研究使用(1)多目标最优化(MOO)和(2)修正的短期自相关(STA)修正的Mann-Kendall(MK)检验，对密歇根州10个未受干扰的流域进行了基流和基流指数(BFI)趋势分析。结果表明，平均基流量(0.09~8.70m~3/S)和生物多样性指数(67.9~89.7%)的变化使地下水补给的区域尺度外推变得复杂。长期(>；60年)MK趋势检验表明，基流和BFI对总降水量(P)和降雪到降雨的转变有显著的控制作用。在下半岛Rifle河流域，磷的增加和从降雪到降雨的过渡使基流量增加的速度低于径流；这一总体模式可能有助于有记录的洪水频率的增加。在上半岛福特河流域，磷的减少和雨雪过渡对基流量和生物多样性指数没有显著影响。我们的结果突出了客观约束的BFI参数在短期(50年)水文趋势分析中的价值，因为STA敏感性较低。
Documenting how ground- and surface water systems respond to climate change is crucial to understanding water resources, particularly in the U.S. Great Lakes region, where drastic temperature and precipitation changes are observed. This study presents baseflow and baseflow index (BFI) trend analyses for 10 undisturbed watersheds in Michigan using (1) multi-objective optimization (MOO) and (2) modified Mann–Kendall (MK) tests corrected for short-term autocorrelation (STA). Results indicate a variability in mean baseflow (0.09–8.70 m3/s) and BFI (67.9–89.7%) that complicates regional-scale extrapolations of groundwater recharge. Long-term (>60 years) MK trend tests indicate a significant control of total precipitation (P) and snow- to rainfall transitions on baseflow and BFI. In the Lower Peninsula Rifle River watershed, increasing P and a transition from snow- to rainfall has increased baseflow at a lower rate than streamflow; an overall pattern that may contribute to documented flood frequency increases. In the Upper Peninsula Ford River watershed, decreasing P and a transition from rain- to snowfall had no significant effects on baseflow and BFI. Our results highlight the value of an objectively constrained BFI parameter for shorter-term (<50 years) hydrologic trend analysis because of a lower STA susceptibility.