Opinion cascades and the unpredictability of partisan polarization
Opinion cascades and the unpredictability of partisan polarization
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aax0754
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发表时间：
2019-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Tong, Natalie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Macy, Michael;Deri, Sebastian;Tong, Natalie
“文化战争”涉及党派身份与不同的政策立场、生活方式选择和个人道德的令人费解的一致性。解释指向意识形态分歧、核心价值观、道德情感和认知固有。两个"多重世界"实验（n = 4581）测试了另一种解释的基础上的敏感性的意见级联的初始条件。与最近的研究一致，在影响条件下的党派分歧比对照组（没有影响）大得多。令人惊讶的是，分歧越大，可预测性越低。在一个实验性的"世界"中，共和党人采取的、民主党人反对的紧急立场在其他平行世界中产生了相反的结果。这种不可预测性表明，在我们自己的世界中，似乎根深蒂固的党派分歧可能是通过一个翻转过程产生的，而这个过程可能很容易向另一个方向翻转。公众对这种违反直觉的可能性的认识有可能鼓励对反对意见的更大容忍。
"Culture wars" involve the puzzling alignment of partisan identity with disparate policy positions, lifestyle choices, and personal morality. Explanations point to ideological divisions, core values, moral emotions, and cognitive hardwiring. Two "multiple worlds" experiments (n = 4581) tested an alternative explanation based on the sensitivity of opinion cascades to the initial conditions. Consistent with recent studies, partisan divisions in the influence condition were much larger than in the control group (without influence). The surprise is that bigger divisions indicate less predictability. Emergent positions adopted by Republicans and opposed by Democrats in one experimental "world" had the opposite outcome in other parallel worlds. The unpredictability suggests that what appear to be deep-rooted partisan divisions in our own world may have arisen through a tipping process that might just as easily have tipped the other way. Public awareness of this counter-intuitive possibility has the potential to encourage greater tolerance for opposing opinions.