Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.
Updated estimate of the duration of the meningo-encephalitic stage in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1186/s13104-015-1244-3
复制
发表时间：
2015-07-04
影响因子：
1.8
通讯作者：
Chappuis F
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Checchi F;Funk S;Chandramohan D;Haydon DT;Chappuis F
HAT各阶段的持续时间是流行病学研究和干预计划中的一个重要因素。以前，我们发表了估计的持续时间的血液淋巴阶段1和脑膜脑炎阶段2的冈比亚形式的人类非洲锥虫病（HAT），在没有治疗。在这里，我们通过调整观察到的感染流行率，对根据乌干达和南苏丹的数据计算的第2阶段持续时间的估计值进行了修订，以适应不完整的病例检测覆盖率和诊断不准确性。第2阶段平均持续时间的修订最佳估计值为252天（95% CI 171-399），约为我们最初最佳估计值的一半，未治疗的冈比亚HAT感染的总平均持续时间约为2年零2个月。 我们的新估计提供了关于这种被忽视的热带疾病在乌干达和南苏丹传播动态的更好信息。我们强调，仍然有相当大的变化，估计的平均值，并且必须谨慎地将这些结果应用到其他焦点。
The duration of the stages of HAT is an important factor in epidemiological studies and intervention planning. Previously, we published estimates of the duration of the haemo-lymphatic stage 1 and meningo-encephalitic stage 2 of the gambiense form of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), in the absence of treatment. Here we revise the estimate of stage 2 duration, computed based on data from Uganda and South Sudan, by adjusting observed infection prevalence for incomplete case detection coverage and diagnostic inaccuracy. The revised best estimate for the mean duration of stage 2 is 252 days (95% CI 171–399), about half of our initial best estimate, giving a total mean duration of untreated gambiense HAT infection of approximately 2 years and 2 months. Our new estimate provides improved information on the transmission dynamics of this neglected tropical disease in Uganda and South Sudan. We stress that there remains considerable variability around the estimated mean values, and that one must be cautious in applying these results to other foci.