Stochastic methods for epidemic models: An application to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Korea
Stochastic methods for epidemic models: An application to the 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreak in Korea
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amc.2016.04.019
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发表时间：
2016-08-05
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Lee, Chang Hyeong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lee, Hyojung;Lee, Sunmi;Lee, Chang Hyeong
在本文中，我们提出了计算流感传播模型的随机方法。首先回顾了SEIR型确定性流行病模型，并介绍了这些模型的随机建模。本文的主要目的是研究随机传染病模型的计算方法。特别是，矩封闭法（MCM）的发展，一些流感模型和标准的随机模拟算法（SSA）下的结果进行了比较。所有的流行结果，包括峰值大小，峰值时间和最终的流行规模的两种方法是在一个很好的协议，但MCM已减少了计算时间和成本显着。接下来，MCM已被用来模拟2009年H1N1流感在韩国的传播动力学。流感的结果进行了比较下的标准确定性方法和随机方法（MCM）。我们的研究结果表明，有一个相当大的差异，特别是当一个小数目的感染性个体最初存在的随机和确定性模型的结果。最后，我们研究了各种情况下的控制政策，如疫苗接种和抗病毒治疗的有效性。(C)2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
In this paper, we present stochastic methods for computation of influenza transmission models. First, SEIR type deterministic epidemiological models are revisited and stochastic modeling for those models are introduced. The main motivation of our work is to present computational methods of the stochastic epidemic models. In particular, the moment closure method (MCM) is developed for some influenza models and compared with the results under the standard stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). All epidemic outcomes including the peak size, the peak timing and the final epidemic size of both methods are in a good agreement, however, the MCM has reduced the computational time and costs significantly. Next, the MCM has been employed to model the 2009 H1N1 influenza transmission dynamics in South Korea. The influenza outcomes are compared under the standard deterministic approach and the stochastic approach (MCM). Our results show that there is a considerable discrepancy between the results of stochastic and deterministic models especially when a small number of infective individuals is present initially. Lastly, we investigate the effectiveness of control policies such as vaccination and antiviral treatment under various scenarios. (C) 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.