Are insects declining and at what rate? An analysis of standardised, systematic catches of aphid and moth abundances across Great Britain
Are insects declining and at what rate? An analysis of standardised, systematic catches of aphid and moth abundances across Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1111/icad.12412
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Shortall, Chris R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bell, James R.;Blumgart, Dan;Shortall, Chris R.
虽然我们已经听说英国的昆虫数量在100多年来一直在减少，但昆虫数量的减少只是在过去20年中进行的统计估计。这些下降率的估计仍然是激烈的争论，由于缺乏标准化，系统收集的数据。超过2400万个单独的蛾和蚜虫收集112个光陷阱和25个12.2米吸陷阱，分别使用混合模型进行了分析。我们的目标是根据1969年至2016年期间每年记录的年度总数估计两组的长期趋势。模型显示存在两种范式：在47年内，长期线性趋势显示蛾类数量显著下降了-31%，但短期趋势表明自20世纪60年代以来的大多数几十年内都有显著下降和恢复的时期。相反，尽管蚜虫的年度总数波动很大，但这一群体在长期内处于稳定状态，下降幅度不显著，为-7.6%。敏感性分析表明，蛾的趋势并不是由一组丰富的物种，但整体蚜虫趋势的迹象可能是由三个最丰富的物种驱动。蛾的趋势的空间范围表明，他们是非常异质性。独特的是，蛾类的下降是不同的几个栖息地类型，在沿海，城市和林地的栖息地，但明显不是在农业，帕克兰和灌木丛栖息地发现强大的显着下降。相反，蚜虫的趋势表现出空间同步延伸到338公里，虽然与当地的变化。
Although we have known anecdotally that insects have been declining in Great Britain for more than 100 years, insect declines have only been statistically estimated over the last 20 years. Estimation of the rate of those declines is still hotly debated, fuelled by a lack of standardised, systematically collected data.More than 24 million individual moths and aphids collected from 112 light traps and 25 12.2 m suction-traps, respectively, were analysed using mixed models. Our objective was to estimate the long-term trends in both groups based on annual totals recorded every year between 1969 and 2016.The models showed that two paradigms existed: Over 47 years, long-term linear trends showed that moths had declined significantly by -31%, but short-term trends indicated that there were periods of significant decline and recovery in most decades since the 1960s. Conversely, despite aphid annual totals fluctuating widely, this group was in a steady state over the long-term, with a non-significant decline of -7.6%. Sensitivity analysis revealed that moth trends were not driven by a group of abundant species, but the sign of the overall aphid trends may have been driven by three of the most abundant species.The spatial extent of moth trends suggests that they are extremely heterogeneous. Uniquely, moth declines were different among several habitat types, with robust significant declines found in coastal, urban and woodland habitats, but notably not in agricultural, parkland and scrubland habitats. Conversely, aphid trends showed spatial synchrony extending to 338 km, albeit with local variation.