A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
van Vuuren, Detlef P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O'Neill, Brian C.;Kriegler, Elmar;van Vuuren, Detlef P.
气候变化研究的新场景框架设想将未来辐射强迫的途径及其相关的气候变化与社会经济发展的替代途径结合在一起，以便对气候变化的影响，适应和缓解进行研究。在这里，我们为如何定义和开发一组共享的社会经济途径（SSP）提出了一个概念框架，以在方案框架内使用。我们将SSP定义为参考途径，描述了一个世纪以来社会和生态系统发展中合理的替代趋势，而没有气候变化或气候政策。我们介绍了适应和缓解挑战空间的概念，这些挑战应由SSP跨越，并讨论如何将社会，经济和环境发展的特定趋势合并为产生这种结果。关于排放场景（SRE）的特别报告中开发的叙述的比较说明了如何定义开发SSP的起点。我们建议对一组基本SSP的初步开发，然后可以扩展以实现更具体的目的，并设想应用基本和扩展的SSP的应用程序，这些过程将迭代且有可能导致对原始SSP本身的修改。
The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.