A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty
A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty
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DOI：
10.1287/mnsc.44.7.879
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发表时间：
1998-07-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Tversky, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fox, CR;Tversky, A
我们在不确定性下建立了基于信念的决定。该模型从（i）对概率的判断中预测了不确定性的决策，这些概率被认为可以满足支持理论； （ii）风险的决策，假定可以满足前景理论。在两个实验中，受试者评估了不确定的前景，并评估了各自事件的概率。研究我参与了1995年的职业篮球季后赛；研究2涉及模拟经济中经济指标的运动。两项研究的结果都与基于信念的叙述一致，但违反了不确定性的经典决策理论所暗示的分区不平等。
We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i)judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of the respective events. Study I involved the 1995 professional basketball playoffs; Study 2 involved the movement of economic indicators in a simulated economy. The results of both studies are consistent with the belief-based account, but violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty.