Exchange rate and Chinese outward FDI
Exchange rate and Chinese outward FDI
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DOI：
10.1080/00036846.2016.1167831
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发表时间：
2016-04
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
H. Liu;Ivan Deseatnicov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Liu;Ivan Deseatnicov
2005年中国政府宣布的汇率制度变化是否导致中国跨国公司对汇率波动的敏感性增加？为了回答这个问题，本文考虑了2003-2013年期间汇率水平、波动性和预期对中国在119个国家的对外直接投资（OFDI）活动的影响。我们发现显著的证据表明，人民币升值对中国对外直接投资流动有负面影响，较高的汇率波动和预期贬值都鼓励中国对外直接投资流动。我们引入了两个互补效应来解释这些发现：回流效应和重商主义效应。鉴于最近关于人民币在国际交易中日益重要的争论，我们认为我们的研究结果揭示了汇率政策对中国跨国公司行为和全球FDI分布的可能影响。
ABSTRACT Did the exchange rate (ER) regime change that was announced by the Chinese government in 2005 lead to an increased sensitivity of Chinese multinational companies (MNCs) to ER fluctuations? To answer this question our article considers the effect of ER level, volatility and expectation on the Chinese outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) activities in 119 countries for a period of 2003–2013. We find striking evidence that Chinese Renminbi appreciation has a negative impact on Chinese outward FDI flows, and both higher ER volatility and expected depreciation encourage Chinese outward FDI flows. We introduce two complementary effects that explain these findings: repatriation effect and mercantilist effect. In view of the recent debate about the growing importance of Chinese Renminbi in the international transactions we believe that our research results shed light on the possible impact of ER policies on Chinese MNCs behaviour and global FDI distribution.