Development and validation of a predictive model for Listeria monocytogenes Scott A as a function of temperature, pH, and commercial mixture of potassium lactate and sodium diacetate.
Development and validation of a predictive model for Listeria monocytogenes Scott A as a function of temperature, pH, and commercial mixture of potassium lactate and sodium diacetate.
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开发和验证单核细胞增生李斯特氏菌 Scott A 的预测模型，作为温度、pH 值以及乳酸钾和双乙酸钠的商业混合物的函数。
DOI：
10.4014/jmb.0809.534
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
K. Yoon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Abou;T. Oscar;J. Schwarz;F. Hashem;R. C. Whiting;K. Yoon
本研究的目的是开发和验证二级模型，该模型可以预测单增李斯特菌 Scott A 的生长参数，作为商业乳酸钾 (PL) 和双乙酸钠 (SDA) 混合物浓度 (0-3%)、pH (5.5-7.0) 和温度 (4-37oC) 的函数。 Baranyi 初级模型总共拟合了 120 条生长曲线，可直接估计滞后时间 (LT) 和特定生长率 (SGR)。使用 LT 和 SGR 自然对数变换的二次和三次多项式模型，通过响应面分析对变量对单增李斯特菌 Scott A 生长动力学的影响进行建模。使用预测偏差 (Bf) 和准确性因子 (Af) 以及可接受的预测区域方法 [相对误差百分比 (%RE)] 通过相关数据和独立数据评估模型性能。 SGR 的预测值与观测值的比较表明，三次模型比二次模型拟合得更好，特别是在 4 和 10oC 时。对于三次模型，独立SGR 的Bf 和Af 分别为1.00 和1.08；对于二次模型，独立SGR 的Bf 和Af 分别为1.08 和1.16。对于三次和二次模型，独立 SGR 数据的 %RE 分别为 92.6 和 85.7。 SGR 和 LT 的二次和三次多项式模型都提供了单增李斯特菌 Scott A 在本研究中描述的条件矩阵中生长的可接受的预测。将 Bf 和 Af 以及 % RE 一起使用可以更准确地评估模型性能。
The objective of this study was to develop and validate secondary models that can predict growth parameters of L. monocytogenes Scott A as a function of concentrations (0-3%) of a commercial potassium lactate (PL) and sodium diacetate (SDA) mixture, pH (5.5-7.0), and temperature (4-37oC). A total of 120 growth curves were fitted to the Baranyi primary model that directly estimates lag time (LT) and specific growth rate (SGR). The effects of the variables on L. monocytogenes Scott A growth kinetics were modeled by response surface analysis using quadratic and cubic polynomial models of the natural logarithm transformation of both LT and SGR. Model performance was evaluated with dependent data and independent data using the prediction bias (Bf) and accuracy factors (Af) as well as the acceptable prediction zone method [percentage of relative errors (%RE)]. Comparison of predicted versus observed values of SGR indicated that the cubic model fits better than the quadratic model, particularly at 4 and 10oC. The Bf and Af for independent SGR were 1.00 and 1.08 for the cubic model and 1.08 and 1.16 for the quadratic model, respectively. For cubic and quadratic models, the %REs for the independent SGR data were 92.6 and 85.7, respectively. Both quadratic and cubic polynomial models for SGR and LT provided acceptable predictions of L. monocytogenes Scott A growth in the matrix of conditions described in the present study. Model performance can be more accurately evaluated with Bf and Af and % RE together.