Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models
Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1708-8305.2009.00310.x
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发表时间：
2009-05-01
影响因子：
25.7
通讯作者：
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Massad, Eduardo;Wilder-Smith, Annelies
登革热已成为国际旅行者的常见问题。风险取决于目的地，持续时间和旅行季节。然而，数据来量化旅行者获得登革热的真实风险是缺乏的。我们使用数学模型来估计非免疫的人在前往新加坡时获得登革热的风险。根据感染力，我们计算了登革热的风险取决于停留时间和到达季节。我们的数据强调，非免疫旅行者在新加坡获得登革热的风险很大，但随季节和流行周期变化很大。例如，对于在2005年登革热高发季节在新加坡停留1周的旅行者，感染登革热的风险为0.17%，但在非流行年如2002年的淡季，感染登革热的风险仅为0.00423%。基于数学模型的风险估计将有助于旅行医学提供者为前往登革热流行国家的旅行者提供更好的循证建议。
Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking.We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival.Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002.Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.