Stock Market Reaction to Supply Chain Disruptions from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
Stock Market Reaction to Supply Chain Disruptions from the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake
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DOI：
10.1287/msom.2019.0777
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发表时间：
2020-07-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Singhal, Vinod R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hendricks, Kevin B.;Jacobs, Brian W.;Singhal, Vinod R.
问题定义：本文提供了2011年日本东部大地震(Geje)对公司财务业绩影响的经验证据。学术/实践相关性：Geje被描述为有史以来对全球供应链造成的最重大破坏。其后果是，人们对全球供应链的风险和脆弱性进行了大量辩论，并呼吁重新设计和重组供应链。方法：我们实证地估计了Geje对公司股票价格的影响。我们的分析基于全球470家公司的样本，这些公司来自商业媒体上识别受影响公司的文章和公告，以及382家商业媒体没有提到但处于可能受到传染或竞争影响的行业的公司。结果：我们估计，在Geje之后的一个月里，经历了Geje导致的供应链中断的公司平均损失了5.21%的股东价值。对日本公司来说，影响要严重得多，股东价值平均缩水9.32%。非日本公司的股东价值平均缩水3.73%。研究还发现，GEJE的上下游供应链传播效应为负，对核工业相关企业的传染效应为负。对于重建行业的公司或受Geje影响的公司的竞争对手来说，Geje的竞争效应是积极的。管理影响：日本公司和经历供应链中断的非日本公司因Geje而遭受的损失在经济上都是巨大的。虽然直接受到Geje影响的公司损失更严重，但对于受到上下游供应链合作伙伴间接影响的公司来说，损失也很大，进一步证实了供应链风险缓解战略的重要性。
Problem definition: This paper provides empirical evidence on the effect of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) on the financial performance of.firms. Academic/practical relevance: The GEJE was characterized as the most significant disruption ever for global supply chains. In its aftermath, there was a great deal of debate about the risks and vulnerabilities of global supply chains, and there were calls to redesign and restructure supply chains. Methodology: We empirically estimate the effect of the GEJE on the stock prices of firms. Our analyses are based on a global sample of 470 firms collected from articles and announcements in the business press that identify affected firms, as well as 382 firms that are not mentioned in the business press but are in industries potentially subject to contagion or competitive effects. Results: We estimate that firms experiencing supply chain disruptions as a result of the GEJE lost on average 5.21% of their shareholder value during the one-month period after the GEJE. For Japanese firms, the effect was much more severe with an average 9.32% loss in shareholder value. Non-Japanese firms averaged a 3.73% loss in shareholder value. We also find that upstream and downstream supply chain propagation effects from the GEJE are negative, and the contagion effect on firms related to the nuclear industry is very negative. For firms in the rebuilding industries or competitors to firms affected by the GEJE, the competitive effect from the GEJE is positive. Managerial implications: The loss suffered by both Japanese firms and non-Japanese firms experiencing supply chain disruptions as a result of the GEJE is economically significant. Although the loss is more severe for firms whose operations were directly affected by the GEJE, it is also significant for firms who experienced indirect effects from their upstream and downstream supply chain partners, further confirming the importance of supply chain risk mitigation strategies.