Identifying the shifting sources to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 in the U.S.
Identifying the shifting sources to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 in the U.S.
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DOI：
10.1063/5.0051661
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发表时间：
2022-03
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Yanchao Wang;L. Zhong;Jing Du;Jianxi Gao;Qi Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Yanchao Wang;L. Zhong;Jing Du;Jianxi Gao;Qi Wang
限制流动是控制 COVID-19 传播的重要措施。研究表明，通过旅行者数量而不是物理距离来衡量的有效距离可以捕获和预测致命病毒的传播。然而，这些努力主要限于单一疾病源。此外，它们还没有在更精细的空间尺度上进行过测试。基于先前对国家层面有效距离的研究，我们提出了多源有效距离，这是一个衡量病毒通过美国县级流动网络传播距离的指标。然后，我们估计源数量的变化如何影响全球流动率。根据这些发现，提出了一种新方法来定位病毒源并估计病毒到达时间。新的度量在预测到达时间方面优于原始的单源有效距离。最后，我们选择两个潜在来源并量化国家紧急状态声明造成的到达时间延迟。在此过程中，我们对国家紧急状态声明的有效性提供了定量答案。
Mobility restriction is a crucial measure to control the transmission of the COVID-19. Research has shown that effective distance measured by the number of travelers instead of physical distance can capture and predict the transmission of the deadly virus. However, these efforts have been limited mainly to a single source of disease. Also, they have not been tested on finer spatial scales. Based on prior work of effective distances on the country level, we propose the multiple-source effective distance, a metric that captures the distance for the virus to propagate through the mobility network on the county level in the U.S. Then, we estimate how the change in the number of sources impacts the global mobility rate. Based on the findings, a new method is proposed to locate sources and estimate the arrival time of the virus. The new metric outperforms the original single-source effective distance in predicting the arrival time. Last, we select two potential sources and quantify the arrival time delay caused by the national emergency declaration. In doing so, we provide quantitative answers on the effectiveness of the national emergency declaration.