The science of choosing the right decision threshold in high-stakes diagnostics.
The science of choosing the right decision threshold in high-stakes diagnostics.
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在高风险诊断中选择正确决策阈值的科学。
DOI：
10.1037//0003-066x.47.4.522
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发表时间：
1992
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Swets,JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Swets,JA
许多诊断任务需要设置一个阈值，以将程度问题的证据转换为积极或消极的决定。尽管心理学中使用的决策分析技术可以帮助人们选择适合特定情况和目的的特定阈值，但在许多重要的实践领域，仅仅是根据情况调整阈值的概念并不受欢迎。测试人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）和飞机结构中的危险缺陷在这里用作说明。本文简要回顾了相关技术，并用数据开发了这两个示例。它表明，决策技术的使用可以极大地造福个人和社会，并询问如何促进这种使用。
Many diagnostic tasks require that a threshold be set to convert evidence that is a matter of degree into a positive or negative decision. Although techniques of decision analysis used in psychology help one select the particular threshold that is appropriate to a given situation and purpose, just the concept of adjusting the threshold to the situation is not appreciated in many important practical arenas. Testing for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and for dangerous flaws in aircraft structures are used here as illustrations. This article briefly reviews the relevant techniques and develops those two examples with data. It suggests that use of the decision techniques could substantially benefit individuals and society and asks how that use might be facilitated.