Change of Land Use/Cover in Tianjin City Based on the Markov and Cellular Automata Models
Change of Land Use/Cover in Tianjin City Based on the Markov and Cellular Automata Models
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DOI：
10.3390/ijgi6050150
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发表时间：
2017-05
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Ruci Wang;Y. Murayama
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Ruci Wang;Y. Murayama
近年来，城市地区在世界范围内迅速扩大，特别是在发展中国家。随着城市的迅速发展，出现了一些环境和社会问题。更好地了解土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的变化将有助于城市规划和限制这些潜在的问题。作为中国四个直辖市之一，天津经历了快速的城市化进程，预计这一趋势将持续下去。以天津市为研究对象，利用遥感（RS）和地理信息系统（GIS）技术，对天津市土地利用变化进行了研究。首先，我们使用RS生成1995年、2005年和2015年的分类图。然后，应用模拟模型来评估LULC的变化。对1995年、2005年和2015年LULC地图的分析表明，超过10%的耕地面积被转化为建筑区。最后，利用马尔可夫模型和元胞自动机模型对2025年和2035年的土地利用变化进行了模拟和预测。我们的分析有助于了解天津地区的发展过程，这将有助于未来的规划，以及限制未来LULC变化带来的潜在负面影响。
In recent years, urban areas have been expanding rapidly in the world, especially in developing countries. With this rapid urban growth, several environmental and social problems have appeared. Better understanding of land use and land cover (LULC) change will facilitate urban planning and constrain these potential problems. As one of the four municipalities in China, Tianjin has experienced rapid urbanization and such trend is expected to continue. Relying on remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) tools, this study investigates LULC change in Tianjin city. First, we used RS to generate classification maps for 1995, 2005, and 2015. Then, simulation models were applied to evaluate the LULC changes. Analysis of the 1995, 2005, and 2015 LULC maps shows that more than 10% of the cropland areas were transformed into built-up areas. Finally, by employing the Markov model and cellular automata (CA) model, the LULC in 2025 and 2035 were simulated and forecasted. Our analysis contributes to the understanding of the development process in the Tianjin area, which will facilitate future planning, as well as constraining the potential negative consequences brought by future LULC changes.