Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge
Joint projections of US East Coast sea level and storm surge
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2801
复制
发表时间：
2015-12-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Villarini, Gabriele
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Little, Christopher M.;Horton, Radley M.;Villarini, Gabriele
未来沿海洪水风险将受到海平面上升以及热带气旋频率和强度变化的强烈影响。这两个因素通常是独立考虑的。在这里，我们评估21世纪的变化，在美国东海岸的沿海灾害使用洪水指数（FI），占洪水持续时间和规模的变化驱动的SLR和功率耗散指数（PDI，热带气旋强度，频率和持续时间的综合措施）的变化。海平面上升和PDI是由15个大气-海洋环流模式（AOGCMs）的代表性浓度路径（RCP）模拟得出的。到2080-2099年，预测的FI相对于1986-2005年的变化是实质性的和正偏态的：RCP 2.6的第10 - 90百分位数范围高出4-75倍，RCP 8.5高出35-350倍。高端FI预测由三个AOGCM驱动，这些AOGCM预测SLR，PDI和上层海洋温度的增幅最大。如果将其与SLR的模型内相关性包括在内，则PDI的变化特别有影响力，使RCP 8.5第90百分位数FI进一步增加25%。其他可能相互关联的气候过程（例如冰盖和冰川质量变化）造成的海平面上升将进一步增加沿海洪水风险，应在全面评估中加以考虑。
Future coastal flood risk will be strongly influenced by sea-level rise (SLR) and changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. These two factors are generally considered independently. Here, we assess twenty-first century changes in the coastal hazard for the US East Coast using a flood index (FI) that accounts for changes in flood duration and magnitude driven by SLR and changes in power dissipation index (PDI, an integrated measure of tropical cyclone intensity, frequency and duration). Sea-level rise and PDI are derived from representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations of 15 atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). By 2080-2099, projected changes in the FI relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range 4-75 times higher for RCP 2.6 and 35-350 times higher for RCP 8.5. High-end FI projections are driven by three AOGCMs that project the largest increases in SLR, PDI and upper ocean temperatures. Changes in PDI are particularly influential if their intra-model correlation with SLR is included, increasing the RCP 8.5 90th percentile FI by a further 25%. Sea-level rise from other, possibly correlated, climate processes (for example, ice sheet and glacier mass changes) will further increase coastal flood risk and should be accounted for in comprehensive assessments.