A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.
A study of the correlation between dengue and weather in Kandy City, Sri Lanka (2003 -2012) and lessons learned.
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DOI：
10.1186/s40249-015-0075-8
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发表时间：
2015-09-24
影响因子：
8.1
通讯作者：
Wickramasinghe M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ehelepola ND;Ariyaratne K;Buddhadasa WM;Ratnayake S;Wickramasinghe M
天气因素会影响登革热的传播。这项研究旨在确定斯里兰卡康迪的登革热天气相关性模式，将结果与类似研究的结果进行比较，并建立更好地控制和预防登革热的方法。我们收集了2003年至2012年康提报告的登革热病例数据和年中人口数据，并计算了每周的发病率。我们从两个气象站获得了每日天气数据，并将其转换为每周数据。我们利用小波时间序列分析研究了登革热发病与天气变量之间的相关模式，并计算了相关系数，找出了相关性的大小。我们发现，登革热发病率与降雨量(以毫米为单位)、雨天和潮湿天数、最低温度、夜间和白天以及平均湿度之间存在正相关，大多有五到七周的滞后。此外，我们发现登革热发病率与最高气温和平均气温、日照时数和风之间存在相关性，并具有较长的滞后期。登革热发病率与风速呈负相关。结果表明，降雨量、温度、湿度、日照时数和风与当地登革热发病有关。我们已经提出了改进登革热管理常规并在全球变暖时期控制登革热的方法。我们还注意到，登革热天气相关性研究的结果可能会因数据分析而异。本文的在线版本(doi：10.1186/s40249-0150075-8)包含补充材料，授权用户可以使用。
Weather variables affect dengue transmission. This study aimed to identify a dengue weather correlation pattern in Kandy, Sri Lanka, compare the results with results of similar studies, and establish ways for better control and prevention of dengue. We collected data on reported dengue cases in Kandy and mid-year population data from 2003 to 2012, and calculated weekly incidences. We obtained daily weather data from two weather stations and converted it into weekly data. We studied correlation patterns between dengue incidence and weather variables using the wavelet time series analysis, and then calculated cross-correlation coefficients to find magnitudes of correlations. We found a positive correlation between dengue incidence and rainfall in millimeters, the number of rainy and wet days, the minimum temperature, and the night and daytime, as well as average, humidity, mostly with a five- to seven-week lag. Additionally, we found correlations between dengue incidence and maximum and average temperatures, hours of sunshine, and wind, with longer lag periods. Dengue incidences showed a negative correlation with wind run. Our results showed that rainfall, temperature, humidity, hours of sunshine, and wind are correlated with local dengue incidence. We have suggested ways to improve dengue management routines and to control it in these times of global warming. We also noticed that the results of dengue weather correlation studies can vary depending on the data analysis. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-015-0075-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.