What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data
What Drives Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon? Evidence from Satellite and Socioeconomic Data
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DOI：
10.7916/d8ns12df
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发表时间：
1997-05
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Alexander Strickland Pfaff Talikoff
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文献类型：
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作者：
Alexander Strickland Pfaff Talikoff
本文分析了巴西亚马逊森林砍伐的决定因素。从最佳使用模式，它推导出，然后估计一个毁林方程的县级数据为1978年至1988年。这些数据包括从卫星图像中测量的森林砍伐情况，这是一个巨大的进步，因为它可以改进县内分析。有证据表明：一个县的道路密度增加会导致该县和邻近县的森林砍伐增加; 20世纪70年代的开发项目与森林砍伐有关，但在20世纪80年代则不然;距离亚马逊以南的市场更远会导致森林砍伐减少;土壤质量更好会导致森林砍伐增加。政府提供信贷的结果在不同的规格中是混合的。人口密度，虽然在大多数以前的实证工作的主要解释变量，并没有显着的效果时，所有的变量激励模型内包括在内。然而，二次规范产生了一个更稳健的人口结果：进入一个空县的前几个人比增加到人口稠密县的相同数量的人有更大的影响。这一结果表明了人口空间分布的重要性。
This paper analyzes the determinants of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. From a model of optimal use, it derives and then estimates a deforestation equation on county-level data for the period 1978 to 1988. The data include a deforestation measure from satellite images, which is a great advance in that it allows improved within-county analysis. Evidence exists that: increased road density in a county leads to more deforestation in that county and in neighboring counties; development projects were associated with deforestation in the 1970s but not in the 1980s; greater distance from markets south of the Amazon leads to less deforestation; and better soil quality leads to more deforestation. The results for government provision of credit are mixed across specifications. The population density, although the primary explanatory variable in most previous empirical work, does not have a significant effect when all the variables motivated within the model are included. However, a quadratic specification yields a more robust population result: the first few people entering an empty county have significantly more impact than the same number of people added to a densely populated county. This result suggests the importance of the spatial distribution of population.