Application of an Uncertainty Analysis Approach to Strategic Environmental Assessment for Urban Planning
Application of an Uncertainty Analysis Approach to Strategic Environmental Assessment for Urban Planning
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不确定性分析方法在城市规划战略环境评估中的应用
DOI：
10.1021/es902850q
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发表时间：
2010-04-15
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Li, Wangfeng
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Yi;Chen, Jining;Li, Wangfeng
城市规划作为指导城市建设和管理的一种调控手段，已被广泛应用，它代表着官方对未来城市地区人口、经济增长和土地利用的预期.毫无疑问，规划方案和实际发展之间经常出现重大差异;特别是在中国，世界上最大的发展中国家正在经历快速的城市化和工业化。这反过来又导致难以估计城市规划的环境后果。为定量分析城市规划实施过程中的不确定性环境影响，提出了一种结合情景分析和随机模拟技术的战略环境评价方法。基于产业发展情景，应用蒙特卡罗抽样方法，生成新兴产业空间分布的所有可能性。所有相关的环境后果可以进一步估计给定的工业分布作为输入到环境质量模型。通过应用HSY算法，环境不可接受的城市增长，无论是经济发展和土地利用的空间布局，可以系统地确定，提供有价值的信息，城市规划者和决策者。大连市的案例研究，东北中国被用来说明这种方法的适用性。本文还讨论了《大连市城市发展规划（2003-2020年）》（UDP）对大气环境的影响。
Urban planning has been widely applied as a regulatory measure to guide a city's construction and management It represents official expectations on future population and economic growth and land use over the urban area. No doubt, significant variations often occur between planning schemes and actual development; in particular in China, the world's largest developing country experiencing rapid urbanization and industrialization. This in turn leads to difficulty in estimating the environmental consequences of the urban plan. Aiming to quantitatively analyze the uncertain environmental impacts of the urban plan's implementation, this article developed an integrated methodology combining a scenario analysis approach and a stochastic simulation technique for strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Based on industrial development scenarios, Monte Carlo sampling is applied to generate all possibilities of the spatial distribution of newly emerged industries. All related environmental consequences can be further estimated given the industrial distributions as input to environmental quality models. By applying a HSY algorithm, environmentally unacceptable urban growth, regarding both economic development and land use spatial layout, can be systematically identified, providing valuable information to urban planners and decision makers. A case study in Dalian Municipality, Northeast China, is used to illustrate applicability of this methodology. The impacts of Urban Development Plan for Dalian Municipality (2003-2020) (UDP) on atmospheric environment are also discussed in this article.