Real-Time Weather Hazard Assessment for Power System Emergency Risk Management
Real-Time Weather Hazard Assessment for Power System Emergency Risk Management
复制标题
电力系统应急风险管理的实时天气灾害评估
DOI：
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Kezunovic
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
T. Dokic;M. Kezunovic
本文重点介绍了一个嵌入在地理信息系统（GIS）的天气影响分类器的发展。它能够将大量的各种信息，从历史停电和天气数据，到实时天气预报和网络监控，整合到一个称为天气灾害的参数中，该参数定义为强度T的天气威胁发生的概率。它能够实时、及时地解释恶劣天气条件的预期影响。它的开发是为了帮助评估电力系统运行和规划的天气影响的风险。由于数据具有不同的空间和时间分辨率，因此将所有数据关联到统一的时空模型中至关重要。其结果是，各种各样的功能的利益，可以提取这样的融合数据，如雷击闪络的概率塔，植被的概率与电力线接触，严重的风暴概率等的天气影响的分类是基于一组提取的功能相关的一个给定的应用程序。统一的风险框架为网络中的每个位置分配每个时刻的风险概率。灾害模型的建立是为了支持基于天气影响评估的预测风险图的开发。该模型的主要目标是提供预测各种天气影响及其预期严重程度的能力，这将使电力系统资产和停电管理的主动缓解措施的实施成为可能。为了证明该模型的适用性，以解决在不同部门的电力公司的问题，开发的模型进行了测试，在两个不同的应用程序：一个用于预测的输电线路雷电性能所造成的恶化的绝缘子，和第二个用于预测的配电线路性能所造成的恶劣天气和植被生长的影响。
This paper focuses on the development of a weather impacts classifier embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). It is able to put together a massive variety of information, from historical outage and weather data, to real-time weather forecast and network monitoring, into a parameter known as weather hazard defined as a probability of occurrence of a weather threat of intensity T. It enables the real-time, just-in-time interpretation of the expected impacts of the severe weather conditions. It is developed to assist in evaluating the risk of weather impacts on the power systems operation and planning. Since the data comes with different spatial and temporal resolutions, it is critical to correlate all the data into a unified spatiotemporal model. As a result, a variety of features of interests can be extracted from such fused data, such as probability of lightning flashover on a tower, probability of vegetation coming in contact with power lines, severe storm probability, etc. A classification of weather impacts is based on a set of extracted features relevant to a given application. The unified hazard framework assigns a hazard probability to each location in the network for each moment in time. The hazard model is built to support the development of a predictive risk map based on weather impact assessment. The main goal of the model is to provide the capability of predicting various weather impacts and their expected levels of severity that will enable implementation of proactive mitigation measures for power system assets and outage management. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the model to solving problems in different sectors of electric utility, the developed model was tested on two different applications: one for prediction of transmission line lightning performance caused by deterioration of the insulators, and second one for prediction of distribution line performance caused by the impact of severe weather and vegetation growth.