The Medium Run
The Medium Run
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DOI：
10.2307/2534687
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发表时间：
1997
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
O. Blanchard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O. Blanchard
宏观经济学主要分为两个子领域。一种侧重于短期，即对商业周期的研究。另一个侧重于长期增长及其决定因素。这种划分隐含的假设是，中期主要是从商业周期波动向增长过渡的时期。这种简化显然是方便的，但它具有误导性。现代经济的特点是中期演变，这与商业周期波动或稳态增长截然不同。两个事实说明了这一点。第一个是众所周知的：在过去的25年里，欧洲大陆的失业率稳步上升，而“盎格鲁-撒克逊”国家的失业率基本保持稳定。另一个不太为人所知，但同样重要：在过去15年里，欧洲大陆的资本份额稳步上升，在许多情况下，目前处于战后的高点;相比之下，“盎格鲁-撒克逊”国家的资本份额基本保持稳定。后一个事实在下面的故事中起着核心作用，并在图1中记录下来。上图显示了德国、法国、意大利和西班牙商业部门的资本份额行为。值得注意的是，在经历了上世纪70年代末和80年代初的低点之后，这四个国家的股票价格都保持了稳定。
MACROECONOMICS iS largely divided into two subfields. One focuses on the short run, on the study of business cycles. The other focuses on the long run, on growth and its determinants. The assumption implicit in this division is that the medium run is primarily a period of transition from business cycle fluctuations to growth. This simplification is clearly convenient, but it is misleading. Modern economies are characterized by medium-run evolutions that are quite distinct from either business cycle fluctuations or steady-state growth. Two facts make the point. The first is well known: unemployment rates have steadily increased in continental Europe over the past twentyfive years, while remaining largely stable in "Anglo-Saxon" countries. The other is less well known but equally important: capital shares have steadily increased in continental Europe over the past fifteen years, and in many cases currently stand at postwar highs; in contrast, capital shares have remained largely stable in "Anglo-Saxon" countries. The latter fact plays a central role in the story that follows and is documented in figure 1. The upper panel shows the behavior of capital shares in the business sector in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Note that after lows in the late 1970s and early 1980s, shares in all four countries stand