Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Eastern China, against the Background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study of Shandong Peninsula, China
Analysis of Climate Change in the Coastal Zone of Eastern China, against the Background of Global Climate Change over the Last Fifty Years: Case Study of Shandong Peninsula, China
复制标题
DOI：
10.4236/ijg.2012.32042
复制
发表时间：
2012-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Q. Tian;Qing Wang;C. Zhan;Xiguo Li;Xueping Liu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Q. Tian;Qing Wang;C. Zhan;Xiguo Li;Xueping Liu
利用山东半岛近50年来的年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、年降水量、6 ~ 9月降水量等资料，采用非参数Mann-Kendall检验、累积差曲线和有序聚类分析方法，分析了该地区的气候变化。结果表明：（1）近50年来，山东半岛年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势，并在1990年前后出现明显的突变点。近50年来半岛的变暖主要是由于年最低气温的显著升高。年最高气温呈上升和下降的混合趋势，但在统计上不显著，没有发现突变; 2）年降水量在过去50年中呈下降趋势，大多数站在1980年前后出现突变，但有少数站在1966年出现较早的转折点。降水量的减少，从6月到9月，主要是负责年降水量减少。山东半岛气温变化与全国大部分地区基本一致，但同期升温速度较快，降水量减少趋势较全国其他气候带更为显著。在半岛范围内，东南部气温和降水的突变早于西北部，东南部降水减少幅度较大，西北部气温升高幅度较大。该研究对了解海岸带气候变化及其环境效应具有重要意义。
The climate change in Shandong Peninsula, China was analyzed in this paper by the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, Accumulated Difference Curve and Order Cluster Analysis methods, based upon the datas of annual mean, maximum and minimum temperature and annual precipitation, precipitation from June to September over the past 50 years. Results obtained showed a number of observations: 1) The annual mean temperature of Shandong Peninsula showed a significant increasing trend, with a distinct abrupt change point detected around 1990, during the past 5 decades. The warming of the Peninsula over the last 50 years was due mainly to the significant increase of annual minimum temperature. The annual maximum temperature demonstrated a mixed trend of decreasing and increasing, but was statistically insignificant, and no abrupt change was detected; 2) The annual precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend during the past 5 decades, with an abrupt change detected around 1980 at most stations; but there was an earlier transition point at 1966, at a few stations. The reduction in precipitation, from June to September, was responsible mainly for the decrease of annual precipitation. Besides, the proportion of the June-September precipitation in the year declined slightly over the last 50 years; 3) In comparison, the temperature evolution in Shandong Peninsula was basically consistent with most parts of China, but warmed at a faster rate over the same period; the decreasing trend of precipitation was more significant compared with the other climate zones of China. Within the Peninsula, the abrupt change of temperature and precipitation in the Southeast was earlier than that in the Northwest; the reduction of precipitation was larger in the Southeast while the increase of temperature was more significant in the Northwest. This research was of great importance to understand the climate change and its environmental effects in the coastal zone.