The effect of community structure on the immunity coverage required to prevent epidemics
The effect of community structure on the immunity coverage required to prevent epidemics
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DOI：
10.1016/s0025-5564(97)00079-5
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发表时间：
1998-01-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Utev, S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Becker, NG;Utev, S
估计有效控制疾病传播所需的免疫覆盖率是一个重要的公共卫生问题。使用关于主要流行病最终规模的数据，我们比较了基于社区由均匀混合的个体组成的简化假设的估计与当承认更复杂的社区结构时获得的估计。考虑的替代社区结构包括完全分开的家庭和地区。建立了几个估计临界免疫覆盖率的不等式。对于几种情况，通过假设过于简化的社区结构估计的覆盖率实际上被低估了。这一发现的一个严重后果是，我们可能会被误导，认为我们已经估计了可以预防流行病的免疫覆盖率，而实际上它不能。结论是，在估算临界免疫覆盖率时，必须考虑群落的异质性。(C)1998年爱思唯尔科学公司。
Estimation of the immunity coverage required to effectively control disease transmission is an important public health problem. Using data on the eventual size of a major epidemic, we compare estimates based on the simplifying assumption that the community consists of uniformly mixing individuals with estimates obtained when the more complex community structure is acknowledged. The alternative community structures considered include households and localities that are quite separate. Several inequalities are established for estimates of the critical immunity coverage. For several settings, the coverage estimated by assuming an oversimplified community structure is found to actually be an underestimate. A serious consequence of this finding is that we may be misled into believing that we have estimated an immunity coverage that can prevent epidemics when it in fact cannot. The conclusion is that the heterogeneity in the community must be taken into account when estimating the critical immunity coverage. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Inc.