Risk factors and variations in detection of new bovine tuberculosis breakdowns via slaughterhouse surveillance in Great Britain
Risk factors and variations in detection of new bovine tuberculosis breakdowns via slaughterhouse surveillance in Great Britain
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0198760
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发表时间：
2018-06-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Conlan, Andrew J. K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McKinley, Trevelyan J.;Lipschutz-Powell, Debby;Conlan, Andrew J. K.
通过宰后肉类检验进行屠房监测为检测英国牛群中的牛结核病(BTB)感染提供了一个重要机制，补充了以活体动物皮肤测试为基础的计划。我们探索通过屠宰场监测检测到的畜群分解数量的模式，并开发贝叶斯分层回归模型来评估动物水平因素与屠宰场检测到受感染动物的几率之间的关联，从而使我们能够突出显示非典型检测模式的屠宰场。分析表明，在研究期间(1998+/2013)，在英国屠宰场检测到的故障数量和比例有所增加。一只动物成为屠宰场病例的几率与该动物一生中大部分时间所在的地区密切相关，生活在英格兰高频测试区的动物被发现的几率平均是生活在苏格兰的动物的21倍。年龄也有很大的影响，在60个月龄被屠宰的动物被发现的几率是0+/-18个月之间被屠宰的动物的5.3倍。观察到，在牛被屠宰的一年的四分之一的时间里，在有BTB病史的农场度过的时间、活动和测试历史对牛的影响较小。在超过这些风险的情况下，在研究的每一年，被发现的几率增加了1.1倍。在对这些变量进行调整后，屠宰场和品种之间的风险存在额外的差异。我们的框架已被纳入动植物卫生局进行的例行年度监测报告，并可能被用于对肉类检验做法进行更详细的调查。
Slaughterhouse surveillance through post-mortem meat inspection provides an important mechanism for detecting bovine tuberculosis (bTB) infections in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB), complementary to the live animal skin test based programme. We explore patterns in the numbers of herd breakdowns detected through slaughterhouse surveillance and develop a Bayesian hierarchical regression model to assess the associations of animal-level factors with the odds of an infected animal being detected in the slaughterhouse, allowing us to highlight slaughterhouses that show atypical patterns of detection. The analyses demonstrate that the numbers and proportions of breakdowns detected in slaughterhouses increased in GB over the period of study (1998 +/- 2013). The odds of an animal being a slaughterhouse case was strongly associated with the region of the country that the animal spent most of its life, with animals living in high-frequency testing areas of England having on average 21 times the odds of detection compared to animals living in Scotland. There was also a strong effect of age, with animals slaughtered at > 60 months of age having 5.3 times the odds of detection compared to animals slaughtered between 0 +/- 18 months of age. Smaller effects were observed for cattle having spent time on farms with a history of bTB, quarter of the year that the animal was slaughtered, movement and test history. Over-and-above these risks, the odds of detection increased by a factor of 1.1 for each year of the study. After adjustment for these variables, there were additional variations in risk between slaughterhouses and breed. Our framework has been adopted into the routine annual surveillance reporting carried out by the Animal Plant Health Agency and may be used to target more detailed investigation of meat inspection practices.