Modeling and probabilistic reasoning of population evacuation during large-scale disaster
Modeling and probabilistic reasoning of population evacuation during large-scale disaster
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DOI：
10.1145/2487575.2488189
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发表时间：
2013-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xuan Song;Quanshi Zhang;Y. Sekimoto;T. Horanont;Satoshi Ueyama;R. Shibasaki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Xuan Song;Quanshi Zhang;Y. Sekimoto;T. Horanont;Satoshi Ueyama;R. Shibasaki
东日本大地震和福岛核事故导致大量人口迁移和疏散。了解和预测这些流动对于规划有效的人道主义救济、灾害管理和长期社会重建至关重要。在本文中，我们构建了一个大型的人类移动数据库，存储和管理的GPS记录从移动的设备使用的约160万人在日本各地从2010年8月1日至2011年7月31日。通过挖掘这组庞大的Auto-GPS移动的传感器数据，能够自动发现日本各地的个人在这场灾难中的短期和长期疏散行为。为了更好地理解和模拟灾害期间的人员流动，我们开发了一个概率模型，该模型能够通过机器学习技术通过发现的疏散进行有效训练。基于我们的训练模型，可以自动模拟或预测全国受灾害影响的各个城市的人口流动情况。基于整个数据库、模型和实验结果，我们很容易发现日本大地震、海啸和核泄漏后的一些新特征或人口流动模式，这些新特征或模式可能在未来的灾害救援和管理中发挥重要作用。
The Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident cause large human population movements and evacuations. Understanding and predicting these movements is critical for planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societal reconstruction. In this paper, we construct a large human mobility database that stores and manages GPS records from mobile devices used by approximately 1.6 million people throughout Japan from 1 August 2010 to 31 July 2011. By mining this enormous set of Auto-GPS mobile sensor data, the short-term and long-term evacuation behaviors for individuals throughout Japan during this disaster are able to be automatically discovered. To better understand and simulate human mobility during the disasters, we develop a probabilistic model that is able to be effectively trained by the discovered evacuations via machine learning technique. Based on our training model, population mobility in various cities impacted by the disasters throughout the country is able to be automatically simulated or predicted. On the basis of the whole database, developed model, and experimental results, it is easy for us to find some new features or population mobility patterns after the recent severe earthquake, tsunami and release of radioactivity in Japan, which are likely to play a vital role in future disaster relief and management worldwide.