A Statistical Method for Estimating Catalog Completeness Applicable to Long-Term Nonstationary Seismicity Data
A Statistical Method for Estimating Catalog Completeness Applicable to Long-Term Nonstationary Seismicity Data
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DOI：
10.1785/0120110309
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发表时间：
2012-12-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Gruenthal, Gottfried
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hakimhashemi, Amir Hossein;Gruenthal, Gottfried
应用分析地震历史目录完整性的方法来估计历史目录的哪一部分可能包括给定区域在特定时间之后的特定震级级别的所有地震。当前的目录完整性估计方法对于长期非平稳地震活动数据来说是不够的。此类方法通常需要模型假设，而本研究中描述的方法则不需要。我们开发了一种基于偏差标准的统计方法，适用于稳态、非稳态甚至多模态非稳态地震活动率。使用从平稳（基于泊松过程的指数）和非平稳（混合双峰威布尔-威布尔、伽玛和对数正态）分布中提取的合成目录来测试该方法的重要性。该方法基于长期地震活动数据应用于欧洲-地中海地区的不同地区。
Methods for analyzing the completeness of earthquake historical catalogs are applied to estimate which part of a historical catalog likely includes all earthquakes of a certain magnitude class after a certain time in a given area. Current methods of catalog completeness estimation are not sufficient in case of long-term nonstationary seismicity data. Such methods typically require model presumptions, whereas the method described in this study does not. We develop a statistical approach based on a deviation criterion, which is applicable to stationary, nonstationary, and even multimodal nonstationary seismicity rates. The significance of the method is tested using synthetic catalogs extracted from stationary (exponential based on a Poisson process) and nonstationary (mixed bimodal Weibull-Weibull, gamma, and log-normal) distributions. The method is applied to different parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region based on long-term seismicity data.