A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV).
A Mathematical Model that Simulates Control Options for African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV).
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0158658
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Ssematimba A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barongo MB;Bishop RP;Fèvre EM;Knobel DL;Ssematimba A
建立了一个模拟不同干预方案下非洲猪瘟病毒（ASFV）在散养猪群中传播动态的随机模型。该模型用于评估实施不同控制策略的时间对疾病相关死亡率的相对影响。生物安全措施的实施是通过结合一个衰减函数的传输率进行模拟。该模型预测，在疫情发生后14天内实施的生物安全措施可以避免高达74%的猪因ASF死亡，而在疫情发生前14天部署的具有70%免疫力的假设疫苗可以避免65%的猪死亡。当这两种控制措施相结合时，该模型预测，如果不采取干预措施，91%的猪将死于疾病。然而，如果联合干预措施被推迟（定义为从> 60天开始实施），只有30%的ASF相关死亡可以避免。在缺乏预防非洲猪瘟疫苗的情况下，我们建议尽早实施加强生物安全措施。积极监测和使用笔旁诊断检测，最好通过移动的电话技术平台将这些数据快速传播给兽医当局，这对于快速检测和确认ASF爆发至关重要。这一预测虽然看起来很直观，但合理地证实了早期干预在管理ASF流行中的重要性。建模方法特别有价值，因为它确定了实施控制ASF爆发干预措施的最佳时机。
A stochastic model designed to simulate transmission dynamics of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in a free-ranging pig population under various intervention scenarios is presented. The model was used to assess the relative impact of the timing of the implementation of different control strategies on disease-related mortality. The implementation of biosecurity measures was simulated through incorporation of a decay function on the transmission rate. The model predicts that biosecurity measures implemented within 14 days of the onset of an epidemic can avert up to 74% of pig deaths due to ASF while hypothetical vaccines that confer 70% immunity when deployed prior to day 14 of the epidemic could avert 65% of pig deaths. When the two control measures are combined, the model predicts that 91% of the pigs that would have otherwise succumbed to the disease if no intervention was implemented would be saved. However, if the combined interventions are delayed (defined as implementation from > 60 days) only 30% of ASF-related deaths would be averted. In the absence of vaccines against ASF, we recommend early implementation of enhanced biosecurity measures. Active surveillance and use of pen-side diagnostic assays, preferably linked to rapid dissemination of this data to veterinary authorities through mobile phone technology platforms are essential for rapid detection and confirmation of ASF outbreaks. This prediction, although it may seem intuitive, rationally confirms the importance of early intervention in managing ASF epidemics. The modelling approach is particularly valuable in that it determines an optimal timing for implementation of interventions in controlling ASF outbreaks.