Multidecadal variability of rainfall and streamflow: Eastern Australia
Multidecadal variability of rainfall and streamflow: Eastern Australia
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DOI：
10.1029/2004wr003234
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发表时间：
2004-10-01
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Franks, SW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Verdon, DC;Wyatt, AM;Franks, SW
[1]本研究探讨厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）和年代际太平洋涛动（IPO）对澳大利亚东部降雨和径流状况的影响。对昆士兰州（QLD）、新南威尔士州（NSW）和维多利亚（维克）的历史降雨和径流数据进行分析，发现这些指数与季节性降雨和径流总量之间存在密切关系。在厄尔尼诺现象的拉尼娜阶段，新南威尔士州和昆士兰州的降雨量和径流量显着增强，随着拉尼娜现象的影响逐渐减弱，因为它向南移动到维克。此外，该研究表明，在一个多年代际的时间尺度上，IPO的负阶段与“潮湿”的条件比正阶段。重要的是，已经增强的拉尼娜降雨和径流被证明是进一步放大拉尼娜事件发生在IPO负阶段。这一结果特别重要，因为厄尔尼诺/南方涛动对维克国际中心的影响似乎很弱;然而，结果表明，在维克国际中心初次涛动的消极阶段，可以对厄尔尼诺/南方涛动的影响作出一些有用的预测。
[1] This study investigates the influence of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) on rainfall and streamflow regimes of eastern Australia. An analysis of historical rainfall and streamflow data for Queensland (QLD), New South Wales ( NSW), and Victoria (VIC) reveals strong relationships between these indices and seasonal rainfall and streamflow totals. Rainfall and streamflow in NSW and QLD are shown to be significantly enhanced during the La Nina phase of ENSO, with La Nina impacts diminishing as one moves south into VIC. In addition, the study shows that on a multidecadal timescale the negative phase of the IPO is associated with "wetter'' conditions than the positive phase. Importantly, the already enhanced La Nina rainfall and streamflow is demonstrated to be even further magnified during La Nina events that occur in the IPO negative phase. This result is of particular importance as the influence of ENSO in VIC appears to be weak; however, the results indicate that some useful predictability of ENSO impacts can be achieved during the negative phase of the IPO for VIC.