Missing the target?: Correspondence of fertility intentions and behavior in the US
Missing the target?: Correspondence of fertility intentions and behavior in the US
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DOI：
10.1023/b:popu.0000021074.33415.c1
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发表时间：
2003-12-01
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Morgan, SP
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Quesnel-Vallée, A;Morgan, SP
基于 Bongaarts（2001）提出的框架，并使用 1979 年全国青年纵向调查的数据，我们描述了 1957 年至 1961 年出生队列的美国女性和男性的预期家庭规模与观察到的生育率之间的对应关系。在 18 年期间（1982-2000），我们发现虽然总体意图相当稳定，但个体层面上的差异非常普遍。女性和男性在预测 1982 年至 2000 年期间的额外出生数量时更有可能犯错，而不是达到目标数量。生育率过高或过低的一个非常有力的预测指标是最初的预期均等率。那些想要两个以上孩子的人往往会比预期的孩子少，而那些想要少于两个孩子的人往往会比预期的孩子多。此外，与生命历程论点一致，那些 1982 年未婚、1982 年无子女以及 1982 年（对于女性）仍在上学的人最有可能达不到 2000 年的预期均等（即，孩子数量少于预期）。最后，我们反思了在美国允许意图和行为之间的差异几乎“平衡”的环境如何在其他地方以不同的方式累积，从而导致生育率大幅降低。
Building on a framework suggested by Bongaarts (2001) and using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for the 1957 to 1961 birth cohorts of U. S. women and men. Over an 18-year period (1982-2000), we show that while aggregate intentions are quite stable, discrepancies are very common at the individual level. Women and men were more likely to err in predicting number of additional births in the period 1982-2000 than to hit their target number. A very strong predictor of over- and underachieving fertility is initial intended parity. Those who intended more than two children tended to have fewer children than intended, while those who intended fewer than two children tended to have more children than intended. In addition and consistent with life course arguments, those unmarried in 1982, childless in 1982, and (for women) still in school in 1982 were most likely to underachieve their 2000 intended parity (i.e., have fewer children than intended). We conclude by reflecting on how the circumstances that allow discrepancies between intentions and behavior to almost "balance" in the U. S. may cumulate differently elsewhere to produce much lower fertility.