Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions
Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions
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DOI：
10.5194/hess-14-1669-2010
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发表时间：
2010-01-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Shah, S. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Archer, D. R.;Forsythe, N.;Shah, S. M.
巴基斯坦高度依赖源自印度河上游山区源头的水资源来灌溉农业，而灌溉农业是巴基斯坦经济的支柱。因此，由于气候变化或社会经济因素造成的现有资源的任何变化都可能对粮食安全和环境产生严重影响。就取水与径流的比率和人均可用水量而言，巴基斯坦的水资源已经非常紧张，而且随着预计的人口变化，这种压力将越来越大。由于水库蓄水量下降而导致的潜在供应变化、内涝和盐碱化的影响或地下水的过度开采，或重新分配用于印度河三角洲的环境修复或满足国内需求，都将减少可用于灌溉的水资源。气候变化对印度河上游资源的影响从三个水文制度来考虑--依赖于冬季积雪融化的冰川制度，以及依赖于同时降雨量的降雨制度。根据气候的历史趋势，最明显的是夏季气温的下降，没有强有力的证据表明这三个制度中的任何一个都显著减少了水资源。跨喜马拉雅冰川物质平衡发生变化的证据喜忧参半。水资源的可持续性似乎更多地受到社会经济变化而不是气候趋势的威胁。然而，对气候、冰川学和径流之间的联系的分析和理解仍远未完成；最近过去的气候经验可能不能为未来提供可靠的指导。
Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources originating in the mountain sources of the upper Indus for irrigated agriculture which is the mainstay of its economy. Hence any change in available resources through climate change or socio-economic factors could have a serious impact on food security and the environment. In terms of both ratio of withdrawals to runoff and per-capita water availability, Pakistan's water resources are already highly stressed and will become increasingly so with projected population changes. Potential changes to supply through declining reservoir storage, the impact of waterlogging and salinity or over-abstraction of groundwater, or reallocations for environmental remediation of the Indus Delta or to meet domestic demands, will reduce water availability for irrigation.The impact of climate change on resources in the Upper Indus is considered in terms of three hydrological regimes - a nival regime dependent on melting of winter snow, a glacial regime, and a rainfall regime dependent on concurrent rainfall. On the basis of historic trends in climate, most notably the decline in summer temperatures, there is no strong evidence in favour of marked reductions in water resources from any of the three regimes. Evidence for changes in trans-Himalayan glacier mass balance is mixed. Sustainability of water resources appears more threatened by socio-economic changes than by climatic trends. Nevertheless, analysis and the understanding of the linkage of climate, glaciology and runoff is still far from complete; recent past climate experience may not provide a reliable guide to the future.