Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills
Career Progression, Economic Downturns, and Skills
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职业发展、经济衰退和技能
DOI：
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
E. Eady
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
E. Eady
本文分析了熟练工人和非熟练工人的职业发展，重点是职业如何受到经济衰退的影响，以及早期获得的正式技能是否可以保护工人免受经济衰退的影响。使用德国不同地区众多出生队列的详细行政数据，我们从劳动力市场进入开始跟踪工人，并估计职业培训选择，劳动力供应和工资增长的动态生命周期模型。最特别的是，我们的模型考虑到了劳动力市场摩擦，这些摩擦因技能群体和商业周期而异。我们发现，工资增长的来源各不相同：边干边学是非熟练工人职业生涯早期的重要组成部分，而工作流动性对进入劳动力市场之前在学徒计划中获得技能的工人很重要。同样，经济衰退通过非常不同的渠道影响技能群体：非技能工人因生产力和人力资本下降而损失，而技能人员则主要因缺乏流动性而受损。
This paper analyzes the career progression of skilled and unskilled workers, with a focus on how careers are affected by economic downturns and whether formal skills, acquired early on, can shield workers from the effect of recessions. Using detailed administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions, we follow workers from labor market entry onwards and estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of vocational training choice, labor supply, and wage progression. Most particularly, our model allows for labor market frictions that vary by skill group and over the business cycle. We find that sources of wage growth differ: learning-by-doing is an important component for unskilled workers early on in their careers, while job mobility is important for workers who acquire skills in an apprenticeship scheme before labor market entry. Likewise, economic downturns affect skill groups through very different channels: unskilled workers lose out from a decline in productivity and human capital, whereas skilled individuals suffer mainly from a lack of mobility.