Projecting the number of patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States to the year 2015
Projecting the number of patients with end-stage renal disease in the United States to the year 2015
复制标题
DOI：
10.1681/asn.2005010112
复制
发表时间：
2005-12-01
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Collins, AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gilbertson, DT;Liu, JN;Collins, AJ
1990年代期间，美国ESRD流行人口的规模急剧增加，从1991年的196,000人增加到2000年的382,000人。在同一时期，发病率也大幅上升，从每年53,000人增加到93,000人。如果ESRD的发病率和患病率继续保持以前的趋势，那么目前用于这些患者护理的卫生保健资源水平最终将无法满足需求。这项研究讨论了一个马尔可夫模型，该模型用于预测2015年的ESRD发病率、患病率和死亡率，并纳入了年龄/种族分布、糖尿病患病率、ESRD发病率和死亡概率的预期变化。该模型预测，到2015年，每年将有136,166例ESRD病例(下限/上限为110,989至164,550)，712,290名流行患者(595,046至842,761)，以及107,760例ESRD死亡(96,068至118,220)。从2000年到2015年，发病率和流行率预计将分别增加44%和85%，每百万人口的发病率和流行率将分别增加32%和70%。2015年护理这些病人所需的财政和人力资源将比2005年多得多。
The size of the prevalent ESRD population in the United States increased dramatically during the 1990s, from 196,000 in 1991 to 382,000 in 2000. Incidence also increased considerably during the same period, from 53,000 to 93,000 per year. If previous trends in ESRD incidence and prevalence continue, then current levels of health care resources that are devoted to the care of these patients will eventually be unable to meet the demand. This study discusses a Markov model developed to predict ESRD incidence, prevalence, and mortality to the year 2015 and incorporating expected changes in age/race distributions, diabetes prevalence, ESRD incidence, and probability of death. The model predicted that by 2015 there will be 136,166 incident ESRD patients per year (lower/upper limits 110,989 to 164,550), 712,290 prevalent patients (595,046 to 842,761), and 107,760 ESRD deaths annually (96,068 to 118,220). Incidence and prevalence counts are expected to increase by 44 and 85%, respectively, from 2000 to 2015 and incidence and prevalence rates per million population by 32 and 70%, respectively. The financial and human resources that will be needed to care for these patients in 2015 will be considerably greater than in 2005.