Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel
Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel
复制标题
预期和实现的收入变化：来自荷兰社会经济小组的证据
DOI：
10.1016/s0167-2681(96)00023-6
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发表时间：
1997
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
A. Soest
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Das;A. Soest
收入预期在家庭决策中起着核心作用。例如，在生命周期模型中，消费和储蓄决策反映了对未来收入的预期。在经验应用中，如果没有关于预期的直接信息，通常会假设预期是理性的，并通过观察到的未来实现来反映。在本文中，我们分析了荷兰家庭的面板波的家庭收入的预期变化的直接主观信息。首先，我们描述这些数据，并研究如何解释的期望，在其他变量中，收入变化在过去。其次，我们将这些数据与下一波面板数据中已实现收入变化的信息相结合，分析预期变化与已实现变化之间的差异。我们发现，平均而言，家庭大大低估了他们未来的收入变化。特别是那些过去收入下降的家庭。
Income expectations play a central role in household decision making. In the life cycle model, for example, consumption and savings decisions reflect expectations of future income. In empirical applications where direct information on expectations is not available, it is usually assumed that expectations are rational, and reflected by observed future realizations. In this paper, we analyze direct subjective information on expected changes of household income in one panel wave of Dutch families. First, we describe these data and investigate how the expectations can be explained by, among other variables, income changes in the past. Second, we combine these data with information on realized income changes in the next panel wave, and analyze the differences between expected and realized changes. We find that, on average, households underestimate their future income changes significantly. In particular, this holds for those families whose income has fallen in the past.