VALIDATING SOLAR WIND PREDICTION USING THE CURRENT SHEET SOURCE SURFACE MODEL
VALIDATING SOLAR WIND PREDICTION USING THE CURRENT SHEET SOURCE SURFACE MODEL
复制标题
使用当前片源表面模型验证太阳风预测
DOI：
10.1088/2041-8205/782/2/l22
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Xuepu Zhao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
B. Poduval;Xuepu Zhao
我们已经进行了比较研究的基础上计算的通量管膨胀因子的太阳风预测电流片源表面（CSSS）模型和位场源表面（PFSS）模型，目的是确定是否CSSS模型代表太阳风的来源比PFSS模型更好。为此，我们获得了均方根误差（RMSE）和观测到的太阳风速度与模型预测的太阳风速度之间的相关系数，两个模型之间的RMSE的比率，以及技能得分。平均而言，CSSS预测比PFSS预测准确1.6倍，将RMSE作为准确性度量。RMSE随着太阳活动周期向最大值发展而增加，这表明随着全球场变得更加复杂，模拟日冕的难度越来越大。我们还比较了WSA/ENLIL对几个卡林顿旋转的预测; Wang-Sheeley-Arge（WSA）模型利用PFSS外推来模拟风源。我们发现CSSS和WSA/ENLIL预测之间的RMSE比的平均值约为1.9，这意味着CSSS预测比WSA/ENLIL预测好近两倍，尽管CSSS模型与ENLIL相比很简单。我们的结论是，根据目前的分析，CSSS模型是一个有效的代理太阳风测量，它改进了现有的常用方法的风预测或代理分析。
We have carried out a comparative study of the predicted solar wind based on the flux tube expansion factor computed using the current sheet source surface (CSSS) model and the potential field source surface (PFSS) model, with the aim of determining whether the CSSS model represents the solar wind sources better than the PFSS model. For this, we obtained the root mean square errors (RMSEs) and the correlation coefficients between the observed solar wind speed and that predicted by the models, the ratio of RMSEs between the two models, and a skill score. On average, the CSSS predictions are more accurate than the PFSS predictions by a factor of 1.6, taking RMSE as the metric of accuracy. The RMSEs increased as the solar cycle progressed toward maximum, indicating the difficulty in modeling the corona as the global field becomes more complex. We also compared the WSA/ENLIL predictions for a few Carrington rotations; the Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) model makes use of the PFSS extrapolations to model the wind source. We found that the average value of RMSE ratio between the CSSS and the WSA/ENLIL predictions was about 1.9, implying that the CSSS predictions are nearly twice better than the WSA/ENLIL predictions, despite the simplicity of the CSSS model compared to ENLIL. We conclude, based on the present analysis, that the CSSS model is a valid proxy for solar wind measurements and that it improves upon existing commonly used methods of wind prediction or proxy analysis.