Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework
Bringing Water into an Integrated Assessment Framework
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将水纳入综合评估框架
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Hugh M. Pitcher
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Izaurralde;A. Thomson;R. Sands;Hugh M. Pitcher
我们开发了一种建模能力，以了解水在流域内是如何分配的，并研究了农业、能源生产、其他人类需求和生态需求之间的当前和未来水分配。水是粮食和纤维生产、家庭和工业用途、能源生产、运输、旅游和娱乐以及自然生态系统运作所需的一种基本自然资源。预计本世纪人为气候变化和人口增长将对水资源造成前所未有的压力。太平洋西北国家实验室(PNNL)的研究人员率先开发了综合评估(IA)模型，用于分析气候变化条件下的能源和经济系统。这一实验室指导的研究和开发(LDRD)工作导致开发了一种建模能力，以评估当前和未来人类需求和生态系统服务之间的水分配。水原型模型(WPM)是在Stella®中构建的，这是一个计算机建模包，具有强大的界面，使用户能够构建动态模型来模拟和集成许多过程(生物、水文、经济学、社会学)。美国150,404平方公里的盆地(美国)太平洋西北地区是WPM发展的平台。大约60%的研究盆地位于华盛顿州，其余位于俄勒冈州。哥伦比亚河流经盆地，全长874公里，起点为与加拿大的国际边界，终点为达勒斯大坝(出于模拟目的)。水通过降水和源自与加拿大国际边界的哥伦比亚河、斯波坎河和蛇河的溪流进入盆地。水通过蒸发蒸腾、消耗性用途(灌溉、家畜、家庭、商业、采矿、工业和非常规发电)和流经达勒斯大坝的水流离开流域。水也通过陆地径流进入哥伦比亚河。该模型按月运行，以考虑气候、河流流量和用水量的季节性变化的影响。模型原型的数据来自国家数据库和生态系统模型结果。WPM可以从三个来源运行：1)直接从Stella运行，2)使用ISEE Player®运行，或3)使用NetSim®软件构建Web版本的WPM。运行这三个版本中的任何一个时，用户都会看到一个屏幕，其中包含一系列按钮、图形和表格。其中两个按钮为用户提供有关如何运行模型的背景和说明。目前，有五种类型的情景可以使用滑动输入设备单独或结合使用来操纵：1)年际变化(如厄尔尼诺)，2)气候变化，3)鲑鱼政策，4)未来人口，5)生物柴油生产。总体而言，WPM捕捉到了径流条件对水电生产的影响。在拉尼娜现象的情况下，一年中所有月份都有更多的水电可用，春季和夏季的可获得性要高得多。在厄尔尼诺现象的情况下，水电将会减少，全年的总降幅将比正常天气状况下降15%。增加流量的政策也将减少水电供应，以促进黑猩猩春季向海洋迁徙。模拟的水电发电量比1995年美国地质调查局(USGS)数据库中报告的81TWh高出23%。这里介绍的建模能力包含了在当前和未来气候条件下进行流域范围的水分配分析的基本特征。由于其基本的数据结构IV和概念基础，WPM应该适合在国家和全球范围内进行IA建模。
We developed a modeling capability to understand how water is allocated within a river basin and examined present and future water allocations among agriculture, energy production, other human requirements, and ecological needs. Water is an essential natural resource needed for food and fiber production, household and industrial uses, energy production, transportation, tourism and recreation, and the functioning of natural ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change and population growth are anticipated to impose unprecedented pressure on water resources during this century. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) researchers have pioneered the development of integrated assessment (IA) models for the analysis of energy and economic systems under conditions of climate change. This Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) effort led to the development of a modeling capability to evaluate current and future water allocations between human requirements and ecosystem services. The Water Prototype Model (WPM) was built in STELLA®, a computer modeling package with a powerful interface that enables users to construct dynamic models to simulate and integrate many processes (biological, hydrological, economics, sociological). A 150,404-km2 basin in the United States (U.S.) Pacific Northwest region served as the platform for the development of the WPM. About 60% of the study basin is in the state of Washington with the rest in Oregon. The Columbia River runs through the basin for 874 km, starting at the international border with Canada and ending (for the purpose of the simulation) at The Dalles dam. Water enters the basin through precipitation and from streamflows originating from the Columbia River at the international border with Canada, the Spokane River, and the Snake River. Water leaves the basin through evapotranspiration, consumptive uses (irrigation, livestock, domestic, commercial, mining, industrial, and off-stream power generation), and streamflow through The Dalles dam. Water also enters the Columbia River via runoff from land. The model runs on a monthly timescale to account for the impact of seasonal variations of climate, streamflows, and water uses. Data for the model prototype were obtained from national databases and ecosystem model results. The WPM can be run from three sources: 1) directly from STELLA, 2) with the isee Player®, or 3) the web version of WPM constructed with NetSim® software. When running any of these three versions, the user is presented a screen with a series of buttons, graphs, and a table. Two of the buttons provide the user with background and instructions on how to run the model. Currently, there are five types of scenarios that can be manipulated alone or in combination using the Sliding Input Devices: 1) interannual variability (e.g., El Nino), 2) climate change, 3) salmon policy, 4) future population, and 5) biodiesel production. Overall, the WPM captured the effects of streamflow conditions on hydropower production. Under La Nina conditions, more hydropower is available during all months of the year, with a substantially higher availability during spring and summer. Under El Nino conditions, hydropower would be reduced, with a total decline of 15% from normal weather conditions over the year. A policy of flow augmentation to facilitate the spring migration of smolts to the ocean would also reduce hydropower supply. Modeled hydropower generation was 23% greater than the 81 TWh reported in the 1995 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) database. The modeling capability presented here contains the essential features to conduct basin-scale analyses of water allocation under current and future climates. Due to its underlying data structure iv and conceptual foundation, the WPM should be appropriate to conduct IA modeling at national and global scales.