The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications
The future that may (or may not) come: How framing changes responses to uncertainty in climate change communications
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.013
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发表时间：
2011-02-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Bretschneider, Pamela
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Morton, Thomas A.;Rabinovich, Anna;Bretschneider, Pamela
传达气候变化可能产生的影响不可避免地涉及不确定性。由于人们通常厌恶不确定性，因此这种活动更有可能破坏有效行动，而不是刺激有效行动。目前的研究考虑了如何以不同的方式制定气候变化预测可能会缓和不确定性破坏个人行动的趋势。两项研究（Ns = 88 和 120）表明，较高的不确定性与负面框架（强调可能的损失）相结合会降低个人的环保行为意图。然而，当较高的不确定性与积极的框架（强调损失未实现的可能性）相结合时，就会产生更强烈的行动意图。研究 2 表明，这些不确定性的影响是通过效能感来调节的。这些结果表明，只要传播者以面对不确定性时引发谨慎的方式来构建气候变化信息，不确定性并不是行动不可避免的障碍。 (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. 保留所有权利。
Communicating possible effects of climate change inevitably involves uncertainty. Because people are generally averse to uncertainty, this activity has the potential to undermine effective action more than stimulate it. The present research considered how framing climate change predictions differently might moderate the tendency for uncertainty to undermine individual action. Two studies (Ns = 88 and 120) show that higher uncertainty combined with a negative frame (highlighting possible losses) decreased individual intentions to behave environmentally. However when higher uncertainty was combined with a positive frame (highlighting the possibility of losses not materializing) this produced stronger intentions to act. Study 2 revealed that these effects of uncertainty were mediated through feelings of efficacy. These results suggest that uncertainty is not an inevitable barrier to action, provided communicators frame climate change messages in ways that trigger caution in the face of uncertainty. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.