Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004
Climate clashes? Weather variability, land pressure, and organized violence in Kenya, 1989–2004
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DOI：
10.1177/0022343311425842
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发表时间：
2012-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Ole Magnus Theisen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ole Magnus Theisen
即将到来的气候变化的证据已经产生了灾难般的声明，表明未来气候更温暖、更潮湿、更狂野，导致移民潮激增，并引发新的战争。尽管这些说法在政策界很受欢迎，但很少有基于系统证据的说法。这项研究使用了肯尼亚1989-2004年的最有可能的案例设计，使用了关于低于一般国内冲突水平的武装冲突的新的按地域分列的数据，发现气候因素确实影响冲突和暴力事件的风险。这一结果与许多国际关系文献的预期相反；相反，它支持了最近人类学研究的观察结果。降雨量低于平均水平的年份往往会对下一年产生和平影响，对本年度也是如此。几乎没有人支持这样的观点，即农田稀缺本身或在选举年助长了暴力。人口越稠密的地区--而不是人均土地占有率低的地区--发生冲突的风险更高。然而，选举年系统性地看到了更多的暴力事件。因此，研究结果支持这样一种观点，即大规模的群体间暴力是由盘算和政治利益驱动的，而不是为了争夺稀缺的土地、牧场和水资源而不顾一切的。
The evidence of coming climate change has generated catastrophe-like statements of a future where a warmer, wetter, and wilder climate leads to a surge in migrant streams and gives rise to new wars. Although highly popular in policy circles, few of these claims are based on systematic evidence. Using a most-likely case design on Kenya 1989–2004, with new geographically disaggregated data on armed conflicts below the common civil conflict level, this study finds that climatic factors do influence the risk of conflicts and violent events. The effect is opposite to what should be expected from much of the international relations literature; rather, it supports the observations made by recent anthropological studies. Years with below average rainfall tend to have a peaceful effect on the following year and less robustly so for the current year as well. Little support is found for the notion that scarcity of farmland fuels violence in itself or in election years. More densely populated areas – not areas with a low land per capita ratio – run a higher risk of conflict. Election years systematically see more violence, however. The findings therefore support the notion that large-scale intergroup violence is driven by calculation and political gain rather than desperate scrambles for scarce land, pasture, and water resources.