Spatial and Temporal Changes of Aseismic Slip and Its Role on Earthquake Forecasting: ―三陸沖における近年の進展を中心に―
Spatial and Temporal Changes of Aseismic Slip and Its Role on Earthquake Forecasting: ―三陸沖における近年の進展を中心に―
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地震滑移的时空变化及其对地震预报的作用：-关注三陆近海的最新动态-
DOI：
10.4294/zisin1948.56.2_213
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发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Hirata
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Y. Iio;T. Matsuzawa;S. Yoshida;T. Kato;N. Hirata
我们回顾了最近的研究的凹凸不平的空间分布，和时空变化的地震滑动推断出的强地面运动，位移速率，连续的地壳形变，和重复的微震在三陆冲地区沿着日本海沟的分析。这些不同的分析提出了一种可能的情况下发生大地震;凹凸体，这被定义为大的滑动在地震中的区域，反复打破时，在凹凸体的应力加载，并达到其强度的地震滑动发生在周围地区。如果是这种情况，我们估计的强度，凹凸不平的范围，以及周围的地震滑动的时空变化，我们将能够预测大地震的发生在一定程度上。此外，如果我们找到一个确定的摩擦滑动本构关系，并成功地估计出板块边界上摩擦参数的详细分布，我们就能够模拟整个俯冲过程，包括沿俯冲板块边界沿着的地震周期。尽管板内地震的加载机制和发震机制可能与板间地震不同，但沿断层面的缓慢沿着滑动对板内地震的发生起着重要作用。
We review recent studies on spatial distribution of asperities, and space-time variations of aseismic slips deduced from analyses of strong ground motions, displacement rates, continuous crustal deformations, and repeated microearthquakes in the Sanriku-oki region along the Japan trench. These various analyses suggest a possible scenario about occurrence of large earthquakes; asperities, which are defined as areas of large slips at earthquakes, repeatedly break when the stresses at asperities are loaded and reach to their strengths by aseismic slips occurring in the surrounding regions. If this scenario is the case and we estimate the strength, extent of asperities, and space-time variations of aseismic slips around the asperities, we will be able to forecast occurrence of large earthquakes to some extent. Moreover, we will be able to simulate the whole subduction process including seismic cycles along a subducting plate boundary if we find a conclusive constitutive law of frictional slip and succeed in estimating detailed distribution of the frictional parameters on the plate boundary. Although loading and generation mechanisms of intraplate earthquakes might not be the same as the interplate ones, the slow slips along the fault surface must play an important role for their generation.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Obara, K
通讯作者：
Obara, K