Molecular and mathematical modeling analyses of inter-island transmission of rabies into a previously rabies-free island in the Philippines
Molecular and mathematical modeling analyses of inter-island transmission of rabies into a previously rabies-free island in the Philippines
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狂犬病向菲律宾以前无狂犬病岛屿的岛间传播的分子和数学模型分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.meegid.2015.12.001
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Oshitani H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Tohma K;Saito M;Demetria CS;Manalo DL;Quiambao BP;Kamigaki T;Oshitani H.
狂犬病是菲律宾的地方病，狗咬伤是人类狂犬病病例的主要原因。狂犬病控制计划在消除狂犬病方面并不成功，因为狗的疫苗接种覆盖率很低。因此，我国迫切需要更有效、更可行的狂犬病控制策略。为了控制狂犬病，了解是否会发生岛屿间的传播是非常重要的，因为一旦病毒被引入以前没有报告病例的地区，狂犬病就可能成为地方病。我们的分子流行病学研究表明，岛间传播事件可能发生，因此，我们进一步调查这些岛间传播使用系统发育和建模的approaches.We调查吕宋岛和塔布拉斯群岛在菲律宾之间的岛间传播。系统发育分析和数学建模表明，从狂犬病传入到首次发现病例有几个月到一年的时间滞后，这表明识别狂犬病初始传入事件的困难。塔布拉斯岛没有狂犬病病例报告，但由于犬只接种率低，狂犬病病毒传入后，岛上的传播链持续存在。在全岛范围内，狂犬病控制计划应包括控制岛际犬只运输和狂犬病疫苗接种，以避免病毒从外部传入，并在病毒传入后打破传播链。然而，这一方案尚未完全实施，岛屿间病毒传播后的传播链仍然存在。地方政府单位试图控制狗的运输;然而，它应该更严格地控制，并应实施持续的狂犬病控制计划，以防止狂犬病传播，即使在无狂犬病的地区。
Rabies is endemic in the Philippines and dog bites are a major cause of rabies cases in humans. The rabies control program has not been successful in eliminating rabies because of low vaccination coverage among dogs. Therefore, more effective and feasible strategies for rabies control are urgently required in the country. To control rabies, it is very important to know if inter-island transmission can occur because rabies can become endemic once the virus is introduced in areas that previously had no reported cases. Our molecular epidemiological study suggests that inter-island transmission events can occur; therefore, we further investigated these inter-island transmission using phylogenetic and modeling approaches.We investigate inter-island transmission between Luzon and Tablas Islands in the Philippines. Phylogenetic analysis and mathematical modeling demonstrate that there was a time lag of several months to a year from rabies introduction to initial case detection, indicating the difficulties in recognizing the initial rabies introductory event. There had been no rabies cases reported in Tablas Island; however, transmission chain was sustained on this island after the introduction of rabies virus because of low vaccination coverage among dogs.Across the islands, a rabies control program should include control of inter-island dog transportation and rabies vaccination to avoid viral introduction from the outside and to break transmission chains after viral introduction. However, this program has not yet been completely implemented and transmission chains following inter-island virus transmission are still observed. Local government units try to control dog transport; however, it should be more strictly controlled, and a continuous rabies control program should be implemented to prevent rabies spread even in rabies-free areas.