Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes
Future vulnerability of marine biodiversity compared with contemporary and past changes
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2650
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Kirby, Richard R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beaugrand, Gregory;Edwards, Martin;Kirby, Richard R.
许多研究都暗示了全球气候变化对海洋生物的重大影响。然而，到目前为止，还没有人试图将这些变化置于历史自然变化的背景下。在这里，我们使用一个理论框架，估计了海洋远洋生物多样性对温度变化的敏感性，并评估了其过去(上新世中期和末次冰盛期(LGM))、同期(1960-2013年)和未来(2081年-2100年；4种变暖情景)的脆弱性。我们的生物多样性重建与当代和过去(盛冰期和上新世中期)几个远洋类群的真实数据高度相关。我们的结果表明，在永久分层地区，当地物种的丧失将是气候变暖的一个突出现象，在所有气候变化情景下，当地物种入侵将在温带和极地生物群中占上风。虽然RCP2.6情景下的少量变暖预计会对海洋中上层生物多样性产生轻微影响，但中等变暖(RCP4.5)将是过去50年中已经观察到的变化的三倍。最令人担忧的是，严重变暖(RCP6.0和8.5)对海洋中上层生物多样性的影响将比大冰年或上新世中期和今天发生的温度变化更大，范围在全球海洋的50%(RCP6.0：46.9-52.4%)到70%(RCP8.5：69.4-73.4%)之间。
Many studies have implied significant effects of global climate change on marine life. Setting these alterations into the context of historical natural change has not been attempted so far, however. Here, using a theoretical framework, we estimate the sensitivity of marine pelagic biodiversity to temperature change and evaluate its past (mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)), contemporaneous (1960-2013) and future (2081-2100; 4 scenarios of warming) vulnerability. Our biodiversity reconstructions were highly correlated to real data for several pelagic taxa for the contemporary and the past (LGM and mid-Pliocene) periods. Our results indicate that local species loss will be a prominent phenomenon of climate warming in permanently stratified regions, and that local species invasion will prevail in temperate and polar biomes under all climate change scenarios. Although a small amount of warming under the RCP2.6 scenario is expected to have a minor influence on marine pelagic biodiversity, moderate warming (RCP4.5) will increase by threefold the changes already observed over the past 50 years. Of most concern is that severe warming (RCP6.0 and 8.5) will affect marine pelagic biodiversity to a greater extent than temperature changes that took place between either the LGM or the mid-Pliocene and today, over an area of between 50 (RCP6.0: 46.9-52.4%) and 70% (RCP8.5: 69.4-73.4%) of the global ocean.