Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security
Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-014-1277-y
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发表时间：
2016-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Osborne, Tom M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Dawson, Terence P.;Perryman, Anita H.;Osborne, Tom M.
联合国粮食及农业组织（粮农组织）估计，地球上有近9亿人遭受长期饥饿。这种状况导致2000年制定了联合国千年发展目标，其中第一个目标是“消除极端贫困和饥饿”，具体目标是将饥饿人口比例减半。然而，人口迅速增长的预测，加上全球气候变化，预计将对粮食安全产生重大不利影响。为了研究这一前景，在QUEST-GSI计划下开发了一个建模框架，我们称之为FEEDME（用于饮食和营养不良评估的食品估计和出口）。该模型使用国家一级的粮食平衡表（FBS）来确定人均平均卡路里，并使用变异系数来说明各国人口在获得粮食方面的不平等程度。通过修订SRES A1 B气候变化和社会经济情景下分别为2050年、2085年和2100年的作物产量和人口变化，对各国FBS中个别食品的热值进行了修改。在无气候变化情景下，仅基于人口和农业土地使用的预测变化，结果显示，如果在干预期间不进行适应或农业创新，全球31%的人口（到2050年将有25亿人）面临营养不良的风险。如果考虑到气候变化，到2050年，还有21%（17亿人）面临营养不良的风险。然而，该模型没有考虑到技术、改良作物品种或农业贸易干预措施的未来趋势，尽管很明显，如果社会要确保为预计超过90亿的全球人口提供充足的粮食供应，就需要在全球范围内采用所有这些适应战略。
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate that nearly 900 million people on the planet are suffering from chronic hunger. This state of affairs led to the making of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals in 2000, having the first goal to "Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger" with a target to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. However, projections of a rapidly growing population, coupled with global climate change, is expected to have significant negative impacts on food security. To investigate this prospect, a modelling framework was developed under the QUEST-GSI programme, which we have termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses country-level Food Balance Sheets (FBS) to determine mean calories on a per-capita basis, and a coefficient of variation to account for the degree of inequality in access to food across national populations. Calorific values of individual food items in the FBS of countries were modified by revision of crop yields and population changes under the SRES A1B climate change and social-economic scenarios respectively for 2050, 2085 and 2100. Under a no-climate change scenario, based upon projected changes in population and agricultural land use only, results show that 31 % (2.5 billion people by 2050) of the global population is at risk of undernourishment if no adaptation or agricultural innovation is made in the intervening years. An additional 21 % (1.7 billion people) is at risk of undernourishment by 2050 when climate change is taken into account. However, the model does not account for future trends in technology, improved crop varieties or agricultural trade interventions, although it is clear that all of these adaptation strategies will need to be embraced on a global scale if society is to ensure adequate food supplies for a projected global population of greater than 9 billion people.