Middle-range theories of land system change
Middle-range theories of land system change
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.08.006
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发表时间：
2018-11-01
影响因子：
8.9
通讯作者：
Verburg, P. H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meyfroid, P.;Chowdhury, R. Roy;Verburg, P. H.
土地系统的变化带来了许多可持续性挑战。确定更可持续的土地利用替代方案需要关于土地利用/覆盖变化原因的坚实理论基础。土地系统科学是一个日趋成熟的领域，在土地覆盖和土地利用变化（从模式、过程到原因）方面产生了大量的方法创新和实证观察。我们通过回顾和综合解释土地利用变化因果机制的理论来盘点这些知识，包括远距离土地利用变化之间的系统联系，重点关注农业和林业过程。我们首先回顾了解释土地利用范围变化（如农业扩张、森林砍伐、边境开发和土地撂荒）以及土地利用强度变化（如农业集约化和非集约化）的理论。然后，我们综合了更高层次的土地系统变化过程的理论，重点关注：（i）土地利用溢出效应，包括土地节约和集约化反弹效应、渗漏、间接土地利用变化和土地利用置换；（ii）土地利用转型，定义为土地系统的结构性非线性变化，包括森林转型。关注土地制度变化原因的理论跨越了理论和认识论上不同的知识领域，并采用演绎、溯因和归纳方法构建。土地制度变迁的宏大、综合理论仍然难以捉摸。然而，我们表明，中层理论——这里定义为上下文概括，描述了解释一系列有明确范围的现象的因果机制链，以及触发、启用或阻止这些因果链的条件——提供了一条通向土地系统广义知识的道路。这些知识可以支持可持续社会生态系统的进展。
Changes in land systems generate many sustainability challenges. Identifying more sustainable land-use alternatives requires solid theoretical foundations on the causes of land-use/cover changes. Land system science is a maturing field that has produced a wealth of methodological innovations and empirical observations on land cover and land-use change, from patterns and processes to causes. We take stock of this knowledge by reviewing and synthesizing the theories that explain the causal mechanisms of land-use change, including systemic linkages between distant land-use changes, with a focus on agriculture and forestry processes. We first review theories explaining changes in land-use extent, such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, frontier development, and land abandonment, and changes in land-use intensity, such as agricultural intensification and disintensification. We then synthesize theories of higher-level land system change processes, focusing on: (i) land-use spillovers, including land sparing and rebound effects with intensification, leakage, indirect land-use change, and land-use displacement, and (ii) land-use transitions, defined as structural non-linear changes in land systems, including forest transitions. Theories focusing on the causes of land system changes span theoretically and epistemologically disparate knowledge domains and build from deductive, abductive, and inductive approaches. A grand, integrated theory of land system change remains elusive. Yet, we show that middle-range theories - defined here as contextual generalizations that describe chains of causal mechanisms explaining a well-bounded range of phenomena, as well as the conditions that trigger, enable, or prevent these causal chains -, provide a path towards generalized knowledge of land systems. This knowledge can support progress towards sustainable social-ecological systems.