Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species
Risk of genetic maladaptation due to climate change in three major European tree species
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.13802
复制
发表时间：
2017-12-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Heiri, Caroline
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frank, Aline;Howe, Glenn T.;Heiri, Caroline
由于自然选择的结果，树木种群通常表现出对当地环境的适应。随着气候的变化，种群可能会变得局部适应不良，适应能力下降。评估气候变化造成的遗传适应不良的预期程度将使森林管理者能够评估森林的脆弱性，并制定保护森林健康和生产力的战略。我们研究了三种主要的欧洲树种，挪威云杉(云杉)、银杉(冷杉)和欧洲山毛榉(Fagus Sylvatica)对未来气候的潜在遗传不适应。通过普通园艺试验，对瑞士各地77-92个种群的苗木生长和物候的数量遗传变异进行了研究。我们使用多变量基因生态学模型将种群变异与过去的种子来源气候联系起来，并基于关键表型性状和A1B情景下的三个区域气候预测来估计对当前和未来气候不适应的相对风险。目前气候变化的风险与当前种子转让做法的平均风险相似。对于所有三种气候模型，云杉和山毛榉的未来风险在本世纪末之前都有所增加，但冷杉的未来风险保持在较低水平。与2061-2090年期间气候预测相关的平均风险最大的是云杉苗高(0.64)，以及山毛榉爆芽和叶片衰老(0.52和0.46)。在瑞士各地，云杉的未来风险很高。然而，在山毛榉和南部阿尔卑斯山冷杉的干旱多发地区也发现了高风险地区。到本世纪末，对未来气候的遗传不适应很可能成为云杉和山毛榉的问题，但冷杉可能不会。因此，应调整研究区域云杉和山毛榉的森林管理战略，以维持未来丰产和健康的森林。
Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061-2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought-prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.