Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting
Micro-simulation of daily activity-travel patterns for travel demand forecasting
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DOI：
10.1023/a:1005259324588
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发表时间：
2000-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Narayanan, R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kitamura, R;Chen, C;Narayanan, R
本文介绍了一个用于生成日常活动-旅行模式的微型模拟器的开发和初步验证结果。模拟器假设一个连续的历史和一天中的时间依赖的结构。它的组成部分是基于日常活动-旅行模式分解成与观察到的活动-旅行行为的某些方面相对应的组成部分而开发的，从而在数学模型和观察数据之间建立了联系。模型的每个组成部分都相对简单，并使用常用的估计方法和现有的数据集进行估计。已经开发了一个计算机代码，并通过蒙特卡罗模拟生成了每日出行模式。研究结果表明，通过微观仿真可以以实用的方式合成个人的日常出行模式。验证分析的结果表明，在模拟日常出行模式中，正确地表示日常时间表中的刚性是很重要的。
The development and initial validation results of a micro-simulator for the generation of daily activity-travel patterns are presented in this paper. The simulator assumes a sequential history and time-of-day dependent structure. Its components are developed based on a decomposition of a daily activity-travel pattern into components to which certain aspects of observed activity-travel behavior correspond, thus establishing a link between mathematical models and observational data. Each of the model components is relatively simple and is estimated using commonly adopted estimation methods and existing data sets. A computer code has been developed and daily travel patterns have been generated by Monte Carlo simulation. Study results show that individuals' daily travel patterns can be synthesized in a practical manner by micro-simulation. Results of validation analyses suggest that properly representing rigidities in daily schedules is important in simulating daily travel patterns.