Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications
Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envsoft.2011.07.012
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发表时间：
2011-12-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Winiwarter, Wilfried
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Amann, Markus;Bertok, Imrich;Winiwarter, Wilfried
在过去的几十年里，欧洲的环境政策成功地消除了空气污染最明显和最直接的有害影响。然而，有充分和有力的科学证据表明，即使以目前的速度，欧洲向大气中的排放也对人类健康、生态系统和全球气候构成重大威胁，尽管这种威胁不太明显和直接。由于许多低垂的果实现在已经收获，进一步的行动将对经济资源提出更高的要求，特别是在资源因经济危机而紧张的时候。此外，各种措施之间的相互作用和相互依存关系如果被忽视，甚至可能导致战略产生反效果的结果，已经开发了综合评估模式，如性别问题信息和联网系统（温室气体空气污染相互作用和协同作用）模式，以确定以最低成本改善空气质量和减少温室气体排放的一揽子措施。这些模型汇集了关于排放的未来社会经济驱动力、现有排放控制备选办法的技术和经济特点、污染物在大气中的化学转化和扩散及其对人类健康和环境的影响的科学知识和质量控制数据。在过去的二十年里，性别问题信息和联网系统模型及其前身已被用于为欧洲关于空气污染控制协定的关键谈判提供信息。报告介绍了最近的一项政策分析，探讨了在没有进一步政策措施的情况下欧洲排放和空气质量的未来可能发展，并评估了进一步改善环境的潜力和成本。为了向即将进行的关于修订《远距离越境空气污染公约》的《哥德堡议定书》的谈判提供资料，本文件讨论了环境政策目标的其他提法对以具有成本效益的方式分配进一步缓解措施的影响。(C)2011爱思唯尔有限公司保留所有权利。
Environmental policies in Europe have successfully eliminated the most visible and immediate harmful effects of air pollution in the last decades. However, there is ample and robust scientific evidence that even at present rates Europe's emissions to the atmosphere pose a significant threat to human health, ecosystems and the global climate, though in a less visible and immediate way. As many of the low hanging fruits' have been harvested by now, further action will place higher demands on economic resources, especially at a time when resources are strained by an economic crisis. In addition, interactions and interdependencies of the various measures could even lead to counter-productive outcomes of strategies if they are ignored.Integrated assessment models, such as the GAINS (Greenhouse gas Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model, have been developed to identify portfolios of measures that improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least cost. Such models bring together scientific knowledge and quality-controlled data on future socio-economic driving forces of emissions, on the technical and economic features of the available emission control options, on the chemical transformation and dispersion of pollutants in the atmosphere, and the resulting impacts on human health and the environment. The GAINS model and its predecessor have been used to inform the key negotiations on air pollution control agreements in Europe during the last two decades.This paper describes the methodological approach of the GAINS model and its components. It presents a recent policy analysis that explores the likely future development of emissions and air quality in Europe in the absence of further policy measures, and assesses the potential and costs for further environmental improvements. To inform the forthcoming negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, the paper discusses the implications of alternative formulations of environmental policy targets on a cost-effective allocation of further mitigation measures. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.